Prague Twin

The Kid is Getting Bigger

2009-12-28T09:22:00.003+01:00

I figured it was time for a new picture, even though I'm still not blogging

Why I'm Not Blogging

2008-06-07T21:01:00.000+02:00

Any questions?

Iran and Al Qaeda: Friends or Foes?

2008-04-10T23:19:00.003+02:00

Perhaps some of you remember the run-up to the Iraq invasion when virtually every speech that Bush gave mentioned "911" and "Saddam Hussein" in the same breath. Now, he never said that Saddam Hussein was in anyway responsible for 911, but he skillfully, masterfully muddled the two together in speech after speech. After a while, polls showed that a full 60% of Americans believed that Saddam Hussein was behind the attacks of 9/11.

I don't think there has been a recent poll on this question, but the last time I heard, it was still at about 50%.

The reason I'm bringing this up is because of this. Yep, that is right, "al Qaeda and Iran are among the greatest threats to America." Doesn't that sound like they are in a group together somehow? How about this quote from the article...

(It) can live in peace with its neighbor, enjoy strong economic and cultural and religious ties, or it can continue to arm and train and fund illegal militant groups which are terrorizing the Iraqi people and turning them against Iran.

Arm and train militant groups which are terrorizing the Iraqi people? Not al Qaeda, of course, but if you didn't know that, it would be easy to make the leap. Here is another quote to help you make the leap...

Bush said Iraq was "the convergence point for two of the greatest threats to America in this new century: Al Qaeda and Iran."

Converging? Not squaring off, but converging. The two greatest threats: al Qaeda and Iran. As if they are on the same I-hate-America team. Two wheels on the "axis of evil" teaming up to kill you and your family.

I have to hand it to his speech writers: this is brilliant. They have tied al Qaeda and Iran together in the minds of millions with this one. Of course, the years of repeating that "Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism" followed by "al Qaeda is the worlds most dangerous terrorist organization" is a requisite part of this well-planned scheme to dupe America into making this connection. The seeds have been sown so well, and now it is time to reap the harvest.

So here is the question: Does this new round of rhetoric indicate that we are getting very close to bombing Iran?

As a follow up: Will the media once again be culpable for helping to dupe the American public for failing to point out that there is no connection between the two?

A funny thing happened on the way to a balanced budget

2008-04-06T22:32:00.004+02:00

Those of you who know this blog also know that I track the public debt as a proxy for the budget deficit. You see, the budget deficit doesn't include the wars in Afghanistan and and Iraq, and it doesn't include the interest that is paid to finance the public debt. There are a lot of other things the deficit figure doesn't include, but those are the big ones. Wouldn't it be great if we, as individuals or in our businesses, didn't have to count things like interest on our debts or "emergency" expenditures even eight years after their inception? That is exactly what the government does. But I digress.

The point is, I track the total amount the government owes each fiscal year and compare it to the previous year. Then I do the math. The difference is, in my mind, the true budget deficit. That figure has been roughly half a trillion dollars a year since Bush II took office. In 2006 it was $574 billion. Then, in 2007 it dropped to "only" $501 billion which left the total public debt at just over $9 trillion at the end of the 2006/2007 fiscal year which ended at the end of September.

Considering all of the back-patting the administration has been doing regarding "record tax revenues" and "halving the deficit" one would expect that six months into the 2007/2008 fiscal year we would be seeing some improvement. Hardly.

In fact, the public debt has increased by $430 billion in just the first six months.

The debt is out of control, and nothing can stop it now.... or can it?

Question (I've stopped numbering them)

2008-03-23T11:40:00.004+01:00

It was about six months ago when our good friend no_slappz asked me rather pointedly what my market view was. If I recall correctly, the Dow was at about 13,000 or a little higher having come off it's peak of about 14,000. I had already said that I expected the dow to stay in the 12,000 to 14,000 range until the end of the year with high volatility (incidentally, I also predicted the Fed to stay on hold for the rest of the year and about that I was obviously dead wrong).

I told no_slappz that I would hold my market view neutral until the end of the year at which point I would change it to negative. He criticized that this was a reactive view and was not forward looking. I never did figure out what he meant by that.

What we've seen since the beginning of the year has certainly been negative. The sub-prime liabilities that we were assured would be "well contained" have begun to affect nearly every major financial institution. My theory all along has been that one can't have it both ways. On the one hand we were told that the "risk has been spread" so that no one person or institution would get hurt too bad, while on the other hand the problems associated with sub-prime mortgages were "well contained." Well, the former has turned out to be true. Everyone will feel the effects of this problem before it is over.

So here is the question: are we closer to the beginning or the end of the current problems in the credit markets? Have we nearly hit bottom, or is the worse yet to come?

Question #3

2008-03-16T13:40:00.003+01:00

Has al-Qaeda in Iraq been "routed" as Sec. of Defense Robert Gates claimed last month, or are they "here to stay."

As a follow on, has "the surge" been successful or does the Iraqi's "failure to make sufficient progress" mean that "the surge" will be remembered only as a lull in violence, much like the early part of 2005?

Question #2

2008-03-02T15:00:00.002+01:00

If an independent contractor (say in Iraq) is paid to be an armed escort for a private person or company, and he does not wear a uniform, does he have Geneva convention protections? To put it more simply, couldn't an opposing force consider him an "illegal combatant?"

Hopefully some of my righty friends can clear this up for me.

Primaries

2008-01-28T09:50:00.000+01:00

Ok, here is a question.

Does anyone besides Hillary Clinton and John McCain have a chance of winning their respective parties nomination?

Why?

This Blog Is Out of Service....

2008-01-10T21:40:00.000+01:00

.....for the time being.

I'll be by your blogs once in a while. As far as excuses go, well, mostly school. I made it through statistics, but I'm still ass deep in Finance, IT, and now Cost Management.

Oh, and my wife is 5 months pregnant.

Did I mention I work full time too?

Honestly, I don't see myself blogging much for quite some time.

I really enjoyed it while it lasted.

Take care,

Michael

Just a Quarter?!

2007-12-11T23:14:00.000+01:00

The Dow dropped nearly 300 points today on the news that the Fed lowered it's target rate and discount lending rate by 25 basis points each. Now, doesn't the market usually rally on a rate cut? Sure, unless they were expecting more. Clearly, traders wanted a full half a point cut to 4.0%.

Here is what I don't get. If market valuations are at near record highs (fact) and the credit crisis is just a media invention (what my detractors say) and the housing market isn't really that bad (same as the credit crisis) why is it necessary for the Fed to aggressively cut rates?

If the "experts" don't believe that a recession is around the corner, why should the Fed even have to cut rates at all?

Today's market reaction to the Fed cutting rates by .25% reminds me of a little brat screaming that they didn't get what they wanted for Christmas.

But I suppose that Fed just isn't in that much of a hurry to debase the dollar. Net Foreign Purchases coming soon!

A Well Timed Post

2007-12-09T22:55:00.000+01:00

The last post was definitely well-timed. It is a week old, and since then we have had a slew of articles on the subject come out. I honestly couldn't have planned it better if I'd known.

Early in the week we got the story that the CIA destroyed videotapes of suspected terrorists being interrogated. There will be an investigation which is pointless since the tapes are gone. Reports suggest that illegal activity by CIA operatives are on the tapes, or were on the tapes before they were destroyed. But here is what they might have shown. Seriously, those of you who endorse torture NEED TO READ THIS!!!!!

Now we get the follow-up report that Congressmen and women were briefed on the tactics (presumably those caught on tape) and did nothing to stop the CIA. In fact, some reportedly encouraged even harsher techniques. Was this a coincidence? Doubtful. This is clearly an attempt to spread the blame across party-lines which is fair enough. While it was probably the Republicans on the committee who wanted harsher tactics used (just a guess here) the Democrats remained silent or tacitly approved because in 2002 that was politically expedient.

And while we are spreading blame, let's not forget President Clinton's "ticking bomb scenario" that is now being used everywhere to endorse torture.

Sure, Republicans are more sadistic than us "lefties" (if nothing else, I think the comments from the last post proved that), but the Democrats don't stand up for the ideals they say they believe in unless it happens to be politically convenient at the time.

I'm still trying to figure out which is worse.

Well, one small point in the Democrats favor: the one member who did express concern when briefed on these tactics was, in fact, a Democrat. Yes, Rockefeller raised concerns despite being legal bound to silence. Good for him. Too bad there are so few like him in Congress.

So while they leave a lot to be desired, the Democrats efforts to stop the CIA from torturing people beat out those who are racing to destroy our values out of a combination of fear and sadism.

Not In My Name, Please

2007-12-02T01:39:00.001+01:00

In the post below, I had called into question the fact that all of us who were raised in the states (even those like Jeb who went to private schools) had to recite the pledge of allegiance every day. I don't think it is detrimental necessarily but just kind of ironic and weird. When I explain this to Czechs, they usually look at me dumbfounded: they would expect this kind of thing from their old communist masters, but not in a "free" country like the U.S.

I found it very interesting that the detractors who are all Republicans to the best of my knowledge (feel free to correct me on that) generally felt that my light criticism of this practice was groundless because the U.S. stands for the greatest ideals ever to grace the planet. I would generally agree with that last part, but I feel that only lends credibility to my argument that being forced to give the pledge is at least ironic.

One of the ideals that I think is particularly poignant is the idea that all people have certain rights, irrespective of what they are suspected of. Pedophiles, ax-murderers, pension-fund plunderers, and animal torturers are all afforded certain rights. The crimes they are accused of are presented to them clearly. They are given a trial, and even when convicted, cruel and unusual punishment (i.e. torture) is strictly forbidden. As much as I would personally like to hang these people up in the square by meat hooks until they slowly die, I understand that this is not possible if one wants to live in a civilized society.

Another one of those ideals is captured in the first Amendment to the Constitution. The press, by virtue of that grand ideal, is allowed to report almost anything.

So when I read a story like this one I can't help to point out the irony that the same people who believe so strongly in the ideals captured by the Constitution, are ready to cast those ideals away in the name of security. They not only think that a terrorist suspect (suspect mind you, not convict) can be tortured, held indefinitely without trial and without any charges being brought against them, but that the press is treasonous for even reporting that this is going on.

I don't have anymore sympathy for a terrorist than I do for a pedophile, but civilized people should refrain from torturing either of them.

Is that really too much to ask?

As an American citizen, I am calling on my government not to endorse, or abet the torturing of anyone no matter how horrible the crime of which they are accused of is.

As an American citizen, I ask that we live up to the ideals that once made us the most admired nation, and people, on earth.

Won't you join me in that, all of you?

2007-11-22T01:18:00.000+01:00

Today at work we had a conversation about clocks. One of my employees wants to put clocks above the doors to the office, and I mentioned that we had the same when I was in school. In fact, I explained, the clocks were connected to a central system so that the moment they struck three, the bell would ring. The ladies in the office, chuckling, said, "we didn't have money for such a system." They went on to say, "but we did have a picture of our president in every classroom." Of course, we had no such thing, but we did have a flag in our room that we had to pledge allegiance to every morning. At that point, I described the drill, complete with the hand over the heart.

I pledge allegiance, to the flag
of the United States of America
and to the republic
for which it stands
one nation, under god
indivisible,
with liberty and justice
for all

They looked at me dumbfounded and asked, "that is in a democracy?"
"Yes," I replied.
"Wow, you guys are crazy."
"You never had to do anything like that?" I asked.
The answer came, "no, of course not."
"Do they still do that?" they asked.
"Honestly, I don't know," I answered.

It struck me as strange that in a country living under the dictatorial regime we knew as Russian communism, no cult of nationality was practiced such as the one I was forced to practice every school day for at least 12 years. While we talked about how brainwashed they all were, we engaged in a practice which now, looking back, seems to me absurd and nationalistic, by comparison they lived in relative freedom.

So I ask you, do kids still have to recite the pledge of allegiance?

If so, can you think of any other country that has a similar nationalistic practice in place?

I can't.

Recap of the 17th

2007-11-19T20:44:00.000+01:00

While the evening was reserved for celbrating freedom, others used this day for advancing their own agenda. The socialists organized 2,000 people who rallied against the proposed radar base outside of Prague. Students complained that the transformation has been largely botched. And the Nazis ironically chose this day to mourn the death of free speech after being snubbed in their bid to march through Prague's Jewish Quarter to "celebrate" Kristallnact.

So they really ran the gamut, from opportunistic socialists to ill-informed students, to simply misguided radicals.

It is clear that while it is important to look back, this country has a lot of looking forward to do.

The Velvet Revolution Begins

2007-11-17T11:31:00.000+01:00

Today marks 18 years since the official beginning of the Velvet Revolution. November 17th marks the day of intense protests in 1989 that led to the fall of communism in the Czech Republic.

The date became significant in 1939 when the Nazis suppressed a student protest, executing 9 organizers, imprisoning 1200 demonstrators, and shutting down the University system. In 1941, Great Brittan declared November 17th to be International Students Day. This is still the only Czech holiday with international significance.

So with communism falling all over eastern Europe, it was no surprise that the Czechs took to the streets in peaceful demonstration, filling Vaclávské Náměstí with about a half a million people shaking their keys, the keys to freedom.

It is an interesting story, and you can read about it in more detail here.

TICS Data

2007-11-16T15:53:00.001+01:00

Last month I reported on the "TICS" data, otherwise known as net foreign purchases (of domestic assets). So just quickly, because of the trade deficit (averaging about $57 billion per month) it is necessary that there are net positive cash inflows to make up the differences. Essentially, we need foreigners to buy stocks, property, t-bills, and the like in roughly the same amount as our trade deficit. Anything that Americans take out of the country of course counts against that total (which is why we say NET foreign purchases). If not, the currency suffers.

So as an FX enthusiast, I watch this data. I don't know why it is largely ignored, because it is a crucial bit of information. I suspect that if this trend continues, we will be hearing more about it.

Two months ago, July's data revealed a shortfall. Only $17 billion net. Analysts expected a rebound as this data is usually pretty volatile (I've seen months well over $100 billion) but instead the Treasury reported -$69.3 billion. Since it had been just about level going into that month, we were looking at about $100 billion shortfall, and the dollar has been suffering in part due to that.

Today, September's report was released. Analysts expected $66 billion, which would cover September's trade deficit, but not much more. Want to guess what the real number is? -$26.4 billion.

The dollar is down sharply on the news. No one on CNBC has even mentioned it.

I remember last year when I was obsessed with the looming mortgage crisis and my conservative friends called me chicken little. Well, I think we will be hearing about this in the coming months.

People seem to be saying, "if Bernanke wants to debase the dollar, fine, but not with my money!"

Understanding the Falling Dollar

2007-11-13T21:45:00.000+01:00

A lot of my readers don't really understand economics and specifically currency exchange issues. Well, it is all relative. Here is an article by someone who REALLY understands currencies, and I think it is quite approachable, even if you are not an expert in these things.

So if you want to know why the dollar is diving, check it out.

Bad Idea

2007-11-09T18:52:00.000+01:00

I know, I know, bad, bad, bad. But seriously, this is bad.

Today and tomorrow mark the 69th anniversary of the Kristallnacht which was a precursor of the horror the Jews of Europe would face over the next 7 years.

To "celebrate" this anniversary, the Czech Young National Democrats plan to march through Prague's Jewish Quarter (Josefov) tomorrow. They will be accompanied by their colleagues from Slovakia and Germany.

Now, this march has been official banned, but they are going to march anyway. The pretext for the ban is simply that the Young National Democrats announced the march internationally before they got the permit. The permit originally was granted until the city could find a technicality to ban the march.

When I first moved to Prague, the Nazis used to march at least once per year. The Communists and Anarchists would organize counter-demonstrations and there would be fireworks (not the kind you light with a match, the metaphorical kind). Afterwards, the Anarchists would smash the windows of the local McDonalds and of some public buildings. Few people got hurt and I always found it kind of fun to watch.

But it has been quite a long time since such an event has taken place, and I fear the worst for this one. This will be a real test for the Prague riot crews.

In any case, I just want to point out that contrary to what some people say, Nazis are (ultra) right-wingers. That is why the Communists hate them. So let's just stop trying to connect us civilized people with these animals (i.e. me with Stalin because we "lean the same way"). No one wins that argument.

Update: Luckily there were only minor clashes, and the police prevented the Neo-Nazis from marching through the Jewish quarter. Have a look at the photogallery if you like.

Bad Day All Around

2007-11-07T22:24:00.000+01:00

Pick your poison today. Dow down 360 points. Oil close to $100. Gold up well above $800. But if you ask me, the real problem is the dollar.

The dollar has now reached its record low against all major currencies on the news that China wants to diversify its assets away from the greenback. Have a look at this chart....

So Bernanke's double dip on rate cuts is starting to have its effect, although I'm not sure this is the one he intended. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Paulson continues to talk about America's strong dollar policy. His credibility is just about shot at this point.

Meanwhile, the largest insurance company in the world, AIG, lost over 7% of its value today which seems to confirm that the subprime mortgage crisis is not "well contained." Citibank wrote down about $38 billion in assets that were overvalued (read subprime) and this indicates that other write-downs are on the horizon. Moody's also downgraded major SIVs further pressuring the credit markets. Furthermore, Mario Cuomo, the NY DA has filed subpoenas on Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae regarding possible collusion with Washington Mutual in overvaluing asset backed securities.

I think we are still at the beginning. This is going to get worse.

The drastic drop in the dollar (which most analysts say are will continue) is going to make it even less likely that the TICS data is going to bounce back. Translation: as the dollar continues to drop, more and more people will refuse to put their money into dollar denominated assets. Hell, even a typical model knows better than that.

The upside? Christmas shopping in the US with foreign currency. Whoo Hoo!

Postscript: Did I say Citibank wrote down $38 billion? Sorry, that was a few days ago. Today it was GM.

Elections According to the Market

2007-11-04T13:39:00.000+01:00

I've mentioned before that the open market is generally a better predictor of election results than any poll. When people are putting their hard-earned down, there is no agenda except for making money. There is no margin of error or 0.05 alpha to concern oneself with. Having said that, the markets only give the probability at any given point in time. Any gaffe or revelation can change the shape of the election at any time (as with the polls).

It has been a while since I checked in with Intrade, the most widely used election market. As I've explained before, the number associated with each result represents the cost of a $1 contract in cents. This translates roughly to the percentage chance that the result in question will come to pass. So for example, if the value is 10, it will cost you 10 cents to buy a contract that will pay $1 if you are right. This means that the market expects that there is about a 10% chance that what you bet on will come to pass.

The face of the upcoming presidential election has changed drastically in the past few months. Starting with the Republicans, we see a two man race, with Romney picking up the support from other candidates that have seen their numbers drop drastically lately (like Thompson, Brownback, and McCain). You can see Romney's steady climb in the race for the Republican nomination below.

On the other hand, Giuliani's numbers are relatively stagnant...

So it is clear that Romney is picking up the others' support in the GOP race. The GOP race had been much more interesting than the democrats with 4 or 5 serious contenders, but now it looks like a two-man race.

Turning now to the Democratic race which used to be a two-person race until recently, we see Clinton now up to a figure above 70.

This surge has come mostly at the expense of Barak Obama (the others are insignificant as ever).

So far, all of these charts have to do with the nominations. With Romney gaining so much ground in the race for the GOP nomination, one would expect that the odds of him winning the presidency would be similarly on the rise. However, that is not the case...

Instead, while Clinton seems to have the Democratic nomination nearly locked in, and Romney is making progress towards gaining the GOP nomination, the odds are leaning towards a Democrat in the White House. Below is the chart for the probability that the Democrats will take the White House in 2008.

It has never looked better for Hilary Clinton.

It May Be Over for Čunek

2007-11-01T22:49:00.000+01:00

I don't think I've been following this story, but it has just gotten so juicy I can't resist.

Jiří Čunek is a Christian Democrat who gained a lot of attention as mayor of Vsetín (my wife's home town) by moving the Romanies (Gypsies) out of the center and into mobile units on the edge of town. Others were forced into buildings unfit for living on the other side of the country. Čunek is certainly not the first to trample on the rights of Romanies. There is the recent case regarding forced sterilization for example.

And in actuality, what Čunek did was actually applauded by many (although some applaud the forced sterilization of Romanies, but not quite so loudly). His real troubles began when he was accused of taking a 500,000 Kč ($25,000) bribe as mayor of Vsetín from a real estate company (the one that developed the property where the Romanies used to live). It looked pretty bad in that the company had withdrawn the amount one day, and he deposited the same amount (minus a little pocket cash) the next day. He was, however, cleared of those charges.

Through all of this, he became the leader of his party, was elected to the Senate, and in order to form a coalition, was appointed Deputy Prime Minister. But now it looks like they have finally got him. He will likely have to resign because of revelations that he took welfare while he had millions of Koruna in the bank (about $100,000 at the time). Already the subject of controversy, the pressure on him is now immense. Here are some quotes that reflect the general feeling....

Čunek must explain it trustworthily, otherwise he has no chance to stay in my government.

-Mirek Topolánek, Prime Minister

A normal man who has two healthy hands does not take welfare when he has millions of crowns on his accounts.

-Miroslav Kalousek, Christian Democrats Finance Minister

And what does Mr. Čunek have to say for himself?

I do not feel it as an ethical failure.

At least in this case, he is telling the truth.

As Expected

2007-10-31T23:12:00.000+01:00

The Fed cut its prime lending rate today to 4.5%. Right on cue, the stock market surged (after an initial drop of 100 points on the Dow) and the dollar dropped to close to $1.45 to the Euro. But don't worry about the dollar dropping further, it is blessing in disguise says the former editor of The Economist.

True, a weak dollar is boosting exports. But what will happen if the U.S. can't fund its current account deficit?

We may find out soon.

Czechoslavak Independence

2007-10-30T00:38:00.000+01:00

Sunday marked the 89th anniversary of Czech independence after the break up the Austro-Hungarian empire. Tomáš Masaryk was elected in 1920 and held the office for 15 years until poor health forced his resignation.

WWII ended what we call here "the First Republic" barely 20 years after it began.

(see the photo in 360 by clicking here)

School Time

2007-10-26T00:54:00.000+02:00

Hi Everyone,

This is just a quick note to let you all know I'm buried in school right now. In fact, I've just spent the last couple of days out of Prague on an educational trip, and I haven't even had time to check my email. It is one AM and I have classes tomorrow at 8:30.

I wanted to thank everyone for commenting on the post below, and I promise I will get back to those thoughtful contributions, but I really just don't know when yet... probably Sunday.

Does Anybody "Get It?"

2007-10-21T11:29:00.000+02:00

The chart to the left is the source of General Petraeus' claim that "civilian deaths in Iraq are down 45% since December." (Click it to enlarge)

That may be true, although this article does much to cast doubt on that claim (as well as Hilary Clinton's claim that the opposite is true). Indeed, politicians on both sides of the spectrum have excelled at misjudging, misinterpreting, and generally misunderstanding the data, the backdrop, and the overall character of this conflict.

With the Petraeus report, we are hearing people say things like, "I hope the Iraqis use this opportunity to get their feet under themselves." Yeah, I hope so too, but reducing violence down to a level roughly equivalent to where it was just over a year ago is not what I would call much of an opportunity. Hardly anyone would argue that the violence is more intense than in December (except maybe Hilary Clinton), but it is exceptionally ignorant to suggest that the current lull in violence presents an opportunity for reconciliation that Iraq has not had in the past. Add this hubris to the list of junk analysis that I have contradicted from the beginning.

The list:

1. The insurgency is largely made up of ideologically motivated foreign fighters and financially motivated Iraqis.

2. Insurgents and terrorists are synonymous.

3. Rooting out al-Qaeda will largely end the conflict.

4. If America was being occupied, we as Americans would not attack our occupiers. (This one is particularly absurd, but yet even the most militant "conservatives" can't seem to understand how ridiculous this idea is.)

I think the film Meeting Resistance goes a long way to dispel these dangerous myths. See the excerpt below.....

(h/t Graeme)

I am not the only one who thinks this is a valuable film. The U.S. military is showing the film to soldiers in Iraq. Below is the reaction of two soldiers after seeing the film...

What blows me away about watching the clip above is that nearly five years in, we are just now starting to ask the important questions like, "what makes up these people's character?" and, "how do people react to occupation?"

The first question would be a bit difficult for me to answer. I would need to do a lot of research and preferably I'd need to live in Iraq for some time.

But the answer to second question is so obvious, it is infuriating that we even need to ask it, and much more infuriating that intelligent people need to be spoon-fed the answer because they can't answer it for themselves.

And you wonder why the world sees us as ignorant?

Postscript: An early morning U.S. led raid on Sadr City reportedly killed six militant and at least as many civilians including...

...two toddlers, one with a gouged face...

Honestly, is the anger that hard to understand? What if those were your kids? What would YOU do?

It's About Time

2007-10-19T18:44:00.000+02:00

It looks like the Czech Republic is finally getting serious about
cracking down on child porn.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus signed a bill stipulating punishment for the possession of child pornography into law Thursday, Klaus's spokesman Petr Hajek told CTK Thursday.

Up until now, it has not be illegal to posses child porn here in the Czech Republic. Manufacturing and distributing was punishable by up to two years in prison (under the new law it will be a maximum of eight) but it was difficult to root out the networks when the police could not investigate people for mere possession.

Despite the objections of certain MPs that people could be framed by having child porn sent to their email inbox, this common sense measure has finally passed.

And none too soon, I might add.

TICS Data

2007-10-17T00:06:00.000+02:00

One of the more important bits of economic data that gets little media attention is the Treasury International Capital System or TICS data. There is a lot of data in the official report, but the most important bit is the "net foreign purchases of long term securities".

But what does that mean? Very simply, that is the amount of U.S. bonds and equities purchased world-wide minus what was bought by Americans. This is important because of the current-account deficit (or trade deficit) which is running at close to $60 billion per month. To fund that deficit, the U.S. must get the same amount per month back in by selling bonds and equities to foreigners. If not, the currency (the dollar) will have to adjust to make up the difference. This is why currency traders watch this monthly release very closely.

So last month, I was slightly concerned that the TICS data came in at under $20 billion. One month's data isn't anything to worry about, but since last year the amount per month has been only marginally meeting the target. So I thought, "well, wait until next month and see if it corrects itself."

I thought it was a misprint when I saw that August's data (released yesterday) was negative $69.3 billion! In my limited experience, I've never seen a negative number here. So what are the implications? Well, this will put more downward pressure on the dollar, which in turn makes dollar denominated assets look less attractive, which in turn means less foreign inflows of cash. Think of it this way, would you purchase bonds in a currency that you expected to lose ground against your own currency?

We've been hearing for years that a weakening dollar may eventually result in foreigners buying less U.S. assets, which will further weaken the dollar and could start a chain reaction amounting to a run on the dollar. A decade ago, a run on the dollar was a fantasy that no one took seriously. Not only is it no longer a fantasy, but we may be seeing the beginning of it.

Cold War Part Deux

2007-10-13T21:56:00.000+02:00

It seemed like old times when I saw Rice and Lavrov (her Russian counterpart) in this photo. The Bush administration has been legendarily unsuccessful in its diplomatic efforts throughout the last 7 years. The rift with Russia over the planned European missile defense system is a microcosm of the problems of the Bush administration thanks to its propensity for unilateral action and its inability to build coalitions.

Now we see an administration that cannot make any progress on the diplomatic front. Putin is clowning Rice with his comments and the world is taking note. And despite Putin's objection to the missile defense system, and despite the fact a majority of Czechs don't want the Radar based here, the administration is bulling ahead with its plans as it always does.

So we can expect to see more of the same for the foreseeable future: A crippled state department unable to make any progress anywhere.

Honestly, it is getting embarrassing. But there is a simple solution, one that the Bush administration should understand.

Democracy. Let the people decide. If democracy is good enough for the Iraqis, surely it must be good enough for the Czechs and the Poles.

Or is it?

Mushroom Season

2007-10-08T23:19:00.000+02:00

See it in 360 here.

Public Debt

2007-10-04T03:48:00.000+02:00

As I've mentioned before, I find that tracking the increase in the public debt to be a far more accurate measure of deficit spending. Things like the Iraq war are not counted in the deficit because these are emergency measures. So what I like to do is track what the government actually owes.

Since president Bush has taken office, the public debt has been increasing at a rate of about $.5 trillion annually. This fiscal year (which ended at the end of September) it was almost exactly that. Here are the numbers going back to 97 for a little perspective. Each figure is the amount of public debt on the last day of the fiscal year.

(1997) Total Debt: $5,413B
(1998) Total Debt: $5,526B (UP $113B)
(1999) Total Debt: $5,656B (UP $130B)
(2000) Total Debt: $5,674B (UP $18B) Clinton's final fiscal year
(2001) Total Debt: $5,807B (UP $133B) Half Clinton, half Bush
(2002) Total Debt: $6,228B (UP $421B) Bush's first fiscal year
(2003) Total Debt: $6,783B (UP $555B)
(2004) Total Debt: $7,379B (UP $597B)
(2005) Total Debt: $7,932B (UP $553B)
(2006) Total Debt: $8,506B (UP $574B)
(2007) Total Debt: $9,007B (UP $501B)

So for all the talk about cutting the deficit in half, you don't really see much of a result. And, I don't know if it is intentional, but they have done something funny with the accounting so that the debt is artificially lower on the last fiscal day of the year. Last year it meant that the debt went up by about $50 Billion within a couple of days. This year, the debt has shot up by $150 Billion in the two days since the end of the fiscal year. When you take that into consideration (i.e. if we look at the total public debt on the second day of the fiscal year of 2006 and 2007 and compare those numbers) we see the debt increasing by over $600 Billion in one year.

The total public debt on October 2nd, 2007 was $9,151,786,966,610.65

How is that for fiscal responsibility?

Round Up

2007-10-02T19:01:00.000+02:00

Some little bits that you might find interesting....

The radar issue finally made the front page of the Herald-Tribune and can be seen here on the NY Times site (but for how long, no one knows).

*********************

Klaus met Cheney regarding the radar issue. Klaus is paraphrased in the article...

Klaus said it is necessary to address the Czech public that has taken a rather negative stand on the radar project. The result cannot be anticipated. The democratic process of decision-making must be respected, he told Cheney.

No one knows if Cheney understood or gives a flying hoot about that last part.

********************

An old Communist MP who served as a prison guard during communist rule says he was just doing his job. He has been stripped of his immunity and now faces trial.

********************

A look at capitalism's underbelly. Not as snowy white as you might suspect.

********************

And finally, today is Mahatma Gandhi's birthday. The international day of non-violence is being observed in Prague. How about in your neck of the woods?

Vilnius Again

2007-09-30T11:56:00.000+02:00

Stepping outside onto the balcony, low and behold there was a marching band!

The marching band was quite good and was followed by very enthusiastic students of all ages. And that says a lot about Lithuania: if nothing else, they are enthusiastic. From their unabashed expression of style to their propensity for busking and singing in the street, there is an optimism and expressiveness here that I don't notice in the Czech Republic. In the evenings people openly flaunt their happiness as well as their grief.

This is my third trip here, and I'm liking it more and more each time I visit.

Havel Responds

2007-09-28T10:16:00.000+02:00

If you don't know about Vaclav Havel that is a pity. The last President of Czechoslovakia and the first president of the Czech Republic, Havel earned his reputation as a political writer and playwright under communism. He spent many years in prison because of his dissidence and for that, he certainly has my respect.

We don't always agree (he supported the Iraqi invasion) but he is consistent in his approach: he vehemently opposes oppression. So when he argues that acting to curb global warming does not jeopardize our civil liberties, I listen.

This recent article in the Herald-Tribune was clearly written in response to Klaus' assertion that the global warming hysteria is a danger to freedom (see post below). In the article he nails a point that I think is being missed in the argument....

Because so much uncertainty still reigns, a great deal of humility and circumspection is called for.

We can't go on endlessly fooling ourselves that nothing is wrong and that we can go on cheerfully pursuing our consumer lifestyles, ignoring the climate threats and postponing a solution. Maybe there is no danger of any major catastrophe in the coming years or decades. Who knows? But that doesn't relieve us of responsibility toward future generations.

I couldn't agree more.

But seriously, read the whole thing. It is short, sweet, and to the point.

And Vaclav Havel is worth your time. He's earned it.

Klaus Denies Global Warming

2007-09-26T00:36:00.000+02:00

I for one had been anticipating Klaus' speech at the UN. Today, he presented his arguments but he certainly hedged his bets. (you can read the entire speech here).

Klaus has become perhaps the most prominent world figure to officially challenge the existence of anthropomorphic global warming. But far from denying it outright, yesterday's speech simply challenged the notion that anthropomorphic global warming is a foregone conclusion. In fact, he seems to hold the same disregard for those who are certain that global warming is not caused by man, or doesn't exist at all (like you Roger). Here is a quote to explain what I mean:

An impartial observer must accept the fact that both sides of the dispute – the believers in man’s dominant role in recent climate changes, as well as the supporters of the hypothesis about their mostly natural origin – offer arguments strong enough to be listened to carefully by the non-scientific community. To prematurely proclaim the victory of one group over another would be a tragic mistake and I am afraid we are making it.

I have to admit, I can't stand foregone conclusions, including those about the superiority of our current economic system over all others.

Suspicion and doubt are healthy. One should always be wary of those who are so sure of themselves that they have lost the ability to even consider the other side of the argument.

Now What?

2007-09-22T18:52:00.000+02:00

You would have to be living under a rock not to have heard that the Fed cut both the overnight lending rate and the discount rate by a full 50bp (.5%) on Tuesday. Once again I was wrong in my prediction. I really didn't think that they would cut by more than 25bp. This also means that I was wrong when I predicted that the overnight rate would remain at 5.25% until the end of the year. Furthermore, it looks like now I will be proven wrong about my prediction that the Dow would stay between 12K and 14K until the end of the year (14K will likely be broken next week).

Right on cue, the dollar is taking a pounding dropping to an all time low against the Euro ($1.41). This is not only due to the rate cut, but also because Saudi Arabia is talking about dropping its peg to the dollar. More strikingly, the Canadian dollar is now equal to the American dollar for the first time in over 30 years. Meanwhile, gold is at a 30 year high, and oil has set new record levels above $80 per barrel. $100 oil and $800 gold now look to be on the horizon.

It is unclear what all this means for the greater economy, but one thing is for sure: one should really try to avoid making predictions, especially about the future.

King dollar has lost his crown, and the implications of this move I think are clearly that inflation will again lift its ugly head.

What really bothers me is that the Fed is making moves to rescue the financial sector from a crisis that it created all by itself. There is no external factors involved, no emerging market crisis or major default. If an external crisis were to emerge now, there is little the Fed could do to prevent major fallout without jeopardizing the dollar and price stability drastically.

In fact, with this move the Fed has okayed the risk taking by the financial institutions and has sparked a new round of irrational exuberance. The correction will still have to come, and now we can be sure that when it does it will be even more painful than it has to be.

Postscript: Two "small" things I forgot to mention are as follows. Firstly, in all the confusion no one seemed to notice that the U.S. public debt surpassed $9 trillion. I don't remember Congress changing the law to allow for that, but oh well. Secondly, net purchases of U.S. bonds came in at under $20 billion in July down from just under $100 billion in June. With a current account deficit running at nearly $60 billion per month, this is not good.

And of course if you want the full story on the dollar, you really can't beat this post from Econobroser. Be sure to scan the comments as well. Very enlightening.

Drumroll please.....

2007-09-17T19:31:00.000+02:00

In the most heavily anticipated FOMC policy decision announcement in the last, well, year at least, most expect the Fed to lower interests rates by 25 basis points from 5.25% to 5.00%. Some believe the rate should (and will) by cut by a full half of a percent. Those folks, I'm afraid, are going to be sadly disappointed.

But what about the others? Will Bernanke cave in to pressure from Wall Street and drop rates to prevent a recession? Are we even that close to a recession? The S&P 500 is up 4.7% on the year. After a hiccup in the Q1, Q2 GDP growth is fairly robust. Inflation has been rather tame in recent months, but will that trend continue especially in light of a rate cut?

And finally, the big question: what about the dollar? The last time I mentioned exchange rates some months ago, the Euro cost $1.31. Now, it is nearly $1.39. Here in the Czech Republic, just over 6 years ago you could literally buy more than twice the local currency than you can buy today for one dollar.

What will actually happen to the dollar if the Fed cuts rates and the ECB raises rates in October (which they are widely expected to do)? $1.45? $1.50? Certainly new record lows for the dollar are in the cards should the Fed lower interest rates. Furthermore, there is some inflation data coming out just before the meeting (PPI and core PPI). What if those numbers surprise to the upside and the Fed cuts rates? What if the CPI numbers which come out on Wednesday surprise to the upside as well? The Fed will look awfully silly cutting rates as inflation fires up. But their job is in fact getting harder every day.

I predicted not long ago that the Fed would hold rates at 5.25% until at least the end of the year. Although I still believe this is the best policy prescription in light of the economic situation, it looks like I'm going to be wrong (again). But don't be too surprised if I'm not. I think the most that the interest rate doves are going to get is a one-time move down to 5.0% with a clear warning that investors should not expect more.

I imagine that even a hawkish tone will keep equities in check for now. There is still a lot of sorting out and unwinding to do. Let's just hope it doesn't happen all at once.

P.S. sorry for the 2 week break. Hopefully, regular program will now continue as scheduled.

Lazyboy Lyrics

2007-09-16T01:44:00.000+02:00

Want to laugh about things that are kind of serious? If you appreciate Daily Show humor, you might like this.

Here is a taste:

Why is marijuana not legal? Why is marijuana not legal?
It's a natural plant that grows in the dirt.
Do you know what's not natural?
80 year old dudes with hard-ons. That's not natural.
But we got pills for that.
We're dedicating all our medical resources to keeping the old guys erect,
but we're putting people in jail for something that grows in the dirt?

Enjoy.

How Many Dead Americans is Saddam Worth?

2007-08-31T17:04:00.000+02:00

One of the points I try to make about America being caught off-gaurd in Iraq is that even a crazy ex-pat with a B.A. in political science saw the chaos coming. Why didn't they? They are either stupid or evil. Those are your choices. So which is it? Are they so stupid they didn't see it coming? Or, are they evil and had ulterior motives and just didn't care what happened to Iraq or to the American soldiers?

I think this pretty much answers the question.

In Case You Haven't Seen It

2007-08-30T19:01:00.000+02:00

Click it, and it gets bigger.

Reality Sets In

2007-08-28T22:09:00.000+02:00

But not everyone wants to admit it. With the major averages correcting and an impending (or already real) credit crunch bearing down, some pundits are blaming the Fed for not cutting rates months ago. I just don't understand this thinking. With inflation remaining above the stated comfort level, the Dow setting new record high after new record high, and unemployment extremely low, the Fed was supposed to cut rates?

Reality for the markets is finally setting in, and this is a good thing. In my view, low rates let the markets get out of control by letting the housing market get too hot, and flooding the system with liquidity. The sheer momentum of the move pushed the markets well beyond their logical top.

Now I think we will continue to see high volatility with the Dow ranging between 12K and 14K until the end of the year.

Housing prices will start to drop fairly rapidly and another big chunk of wealth we be transferred from the overextended to the flush as bargain hunters "save" us.

I don't believe that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon....for the record.

I've been wrong before.

Lessons Not Learned

2007-08-25T18:19:00.000+02:00

You have probably heard about president Bush's recent speech which is, in my view, an astounding misinterpretation of history's lessons, even for president Bush. I think this analysis cuts to the quick on Bush's mistakes and motives.

Bush's consistent critics didn't waste any time hammering him for his clear desperation. I particularly enjoyed reading Vietnam's official reaction to this train-wreck of a speech. They make it clear that their resistance to the Americans was justified. They hope for the best for Iraq but do not say the insurgents are unjustified in their struggle. I wonder if they think the Americans should not have pulled out. I wonder, would the struggle still be going on today had they not? Would that be a better version of history than our present one?

And speaking of Vietnam, I have to say that the one analogy that president Bush employed which struck me as particularly strange is the reference to Alden Pyle in Graham Greene's classic The Quiet American. If you haven't read the book, you may have missed the reference as being as naive and misguided as, well, Alden Pyle. Here you can read a very good analysis of why this comparison is so hopelessly misguided.

I'm not sure what is sadder: the politicians who conjure up this type of drivel, or the masses who consume it as if it was fine wine.

The Issue(s) that Won't Go Away

2007-08-22T00:59:00.000+02:00

Now that Russia has declared that the Czech plans to host an American/Nato missile defense radar system are a "big mistake", it is hard to ignore the significance. I've talked about this many times as this is clearly the local issue here that garners the most international attention.

To review, a majority of Czechs oppose this plan, according to polls. However, the most respected Czech, our former president, Vaclav Havel not only supports it, but went so far as to sign a petition in support of the plan.

One of the most convincing arguments in support of the plan which I came up with myself but also heard echoed by a villager on television is this: "The communists are against it, so therefore I'm for it." That seems pretty logical.

But in any case, this is an issue with many dimensions and pitfalls and solutions are not forthcoming with ease. I'd be very pleased to hear your thoughts on this.

P.S. I'm very sorry for not getting back to your very thoughtful comments. Rest assured that I'm reading them and I appreciate them very much. I simply haven't time to keep up with them or with regular blogging.

Bush in Albania

2007-08-15T00:52:00.000+02:00

A couple of months ago I reported that Bush was in Prague. I mean, it wasn't a secret, so obviously it wasn't much of a scoop. While here, no one was able to get close to him. In fact, they kept his location a secret, blocking off many areas where he wasn't in an effort to obfuscate his enemies. Everyone knew he was in Prague 6 where the diplomats hang out. But they had the area around the Hilton hotel blocked off one day. We all know damn well he wasn't there, but the secret service was doing their job.

This evening I met a young Czech lady who told me about the morning when she couldn't get to work because of Bush's non-presence at the Hilton. Not a big fan of Bush anyway, she was infuriated that she had to drive around the other way, park her car, and then walk some 2.5 miles to get to work (nearly an hour late) to avoid the place where Bush wasn't.

And while no one here or in the United States could get within several hundred yards of him, Bush mingled with massive crowds in Albania where "they love him." Everyone here laughs at the undisputable fact that someone in the crowd stole his watch. Although the White House denies it, Serbian television has the footage. It happens just before 1 minute into the video. Judge for yourself.

Sidenote: although the American press reported that the Albanians "adore him" keep in mind that whistles in this part of the world are not considered friendly in any way.

Yeah, they love him so much, they wanted a souvenir to remember him by.

Leadership

2007-08-14T01:00:00.000+02:00

I am a horrible procrastinator. The upside of this is that I perform quite well under pressure. As an example, I've had well over a month to write a measly 4 page paper on Jon Krakauer's book, Into Thin Air, a gripping tale of the 1996 Everest disaster. I tore through the book within 2 days of receiving it and put off writing the paper until the final day. It is now 1am on the due date, and I've just finished. I even wasted all weekend thinking I would write the paper during that time (I did think about it a lot, which made tonight's task easier). So now I'm all wound up and I have to go to work tomorrow morning. Uhg!

Anyway, the point here is that I have a question for you. I rarely ask questions, so I hope you will all indulge me here. The assignment was to identify effective and ineffective leaders in the book. So without doing the background reading, I'd love to get your thoughts on this.

What characterizes an effective leader?

I will probably be quite busy for a while, so blogging will be sporadic in the meantime.

Cleaning House

2007-08-12T12:33:00.000+02:00

Similar to Kvatch's series, "Bloggers I Have Known" this post is sad farewell to those who have disappeared over the last several months. Before I erase them, I'd like to say goodbye (despite the fact that not one of them bothered to say goodbye to their readers. What is up with that?).

Thumping the Tub, written by Michael from Scotland has been inactive for 2 and one half months. My only link to Scotland is gone.

The regulatory, formerly "Cold Goat Eyes" was introduced to me by Expatbrian, who writes World Gone Mad. My favorite post here was a (not so)steady cam operated by the author coming home to his flat in Taiwan. I really felt like I was there. Inactive now for over two months.

Edit Copy. This one hurts. EC, as I liked to call him, wrote a genuinely intelligent blog. There was a cryptic goodbye of sorts in that we (his readers) were informed of his decision to join the army as a specialist (although we never got the strait story). His last post (Feb 15) was titled, "Should I Stay or Should I go." I guess he left.

I had just started reading Millicent Frastley when her sister tragically died in January. Since then, she has posted once. She is getting married and I wish her the best.

Brickburner is just gone. A true peace-freak, I will miss him.

American Citizen Soldier was written by a non-com officer who fought both in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was intelligent and engaging and left his blog four months ago with a hit piece on Al Gore. What a sad end to an illustrious blogging life.

Finally, on a positive note, Politics, Parenting, and other Hazardous Pastimes has been reborn as Pondering in Purple.

So my blog rolls reflect these changes. Any of you are welcome back anytime. Best of luck!

Update: The Regulatory is back in action. Within minutes of this posting, I was taken to task. I wonder if anyone else will come out of the woodwork.

Update 2: Michael, the Tubthumper can be found here. (Why don't people announce these things?)

Breakdancing

2007-08-12T00:49:00.000+02:00

It has been a while since I saw any. Let me just say, the sport is still progressing. I saw this year's contest. This is two years old, but it is the best I could find.

If you want to see more....

Here is the 25 minute version. What is that language? Swiss German? Anyone?

Friday Economic Report

2007-08-10T23:11:00.000+02:00

It has been many months since I did one of these, so the name hardly holds meaning. However, it is Friday, and a report is certainly overdue.

I'm sure the markets are all over the news. More important than the huge losses we saw yesterday is the extreme volatility we are seeing. After all, the major indices are up for the week, and well up for the year. But there is a lot of fear going around. Is it warranted? Probably not.

It was just a few days ago that the Fed decided to leave the target rate at 5.25%. If there really was a huge problem with liquidity, we would have expected to see a rate cut. Having said that, they did inject $38 billion in three separate moves today. Central banks around the world injected over $300 billion in similar moves. This was done to prevent a crisis in short term liquidity. If these moves are not enough, the Fed may consider cutting rates in September, but I still doubt they will.

Instead, the Fed is saying that they will support the banks, that there is no reason to panic, but also that liquidity is a bit short. The overriding issue in all of this, of course, is the failing sub-prime mortgage sector in the United States. I have been tracking this problem since last summer when I realized that over the next couple of years, defaults would be commonplace, and the American consumer would be affected.

I still believe that in this interconnected world the sub-prime mortgage situation (I'll call it a crisis in about 6 months) will bleed into the larger economy and create a feedback effect that will affect everything. Am I saying the sky is falling? No. But this is not going to go away anytime soon. I suspect that we will continue to see this issue evolve over the next 12 to 18 months, and the full extent of the fallout won't be seen for a couple of years.

For the next six months, I expect the stock market to be unpredictable. The Dow will probably stay between 12 and 14,000, but will it be 12, 13, or 14? I have no idea. 12,200 looks to be very strong support, and with all the money people have made over the last several years, the bargain hunters should keep things afloat.

But the easy times are over. I feel sorry for the poor suckers who bought those high-yielding instruments thinking they were buying something safe. Well, maybe "feeling sorry" isn't really the word for it. But I pity them nonetheless.

"Forgive them Father, for they know not what they do."

And no one is going to inject liquidity into these peoples' bank accounts, unlike like the treatment that the financial institutions are getting.

And the financial institutions should have known better. Of course, they knew all the while that they would get bailed out, should thing go a bit sour.

Today's events prove they were right.

This Could be Interesting

2007-08-08T22:21:00.000+02:00

In an effort to be more balanced, or simply as an oversight, the UN has invited president Klaus to the Global Warming Conference.

Klaus promises to spice up the evening saying....

It will be a gathering of 'Gore-ites,' so they're going to be shocked that they invited me 'by mistake,' too. And I'm going to give a very tough speech.

That ought to be interesting.

Klaus garnered global attention earlier this summer with this article. This marks the first time that anyone has paid attention to what a Czech leader has said.

If only people would pay the same attention to Vaclav Havel.

Why I'm Against the Patriot Act

2007-08-05T11:56:00.000+02:00

Here is one reason anyway: this article which was buried on page A17 in the Washington Post, just found it's way into my possession quite by chance. Here is a taste:

I resent being conscripted as a secret informer for the government and being made to mislead those who are close to me, especially because I have doubts about the legitimacy of the underlying investigation.

The author is describing the situation he finds himself in after being served with a National Security Letter (ACLU description if you prefer). The reason I used the above quote is that "being conscripted as a secret informer" is exactly the position in which many honest, law-abiding citizens of the country in which I now live, found themselves during communist times. Much like the author of this article, these folks were conscripted against their will to inform on others on which they possessed information. Much like the author, these folks were forbidden from discussing their coerced compliance.

This coercion has been highlighted as one of the horrors of communist rule.

Now it is reality in the United States of America.

How sad is that?

Vilnuis (Lithuania)

2007-08-01T21:22:00.001+02:00

So here, first of all, is a fairly decent view of the center of Vilnius from on high. The prominent building in the center is a church that is right next door from where we were staying.

Here you can see a nice pub by the river where I had some authentic Lithuanian food and beer.

This is a traditional white beer. Usually white beers are much too sweet for me, but this one was well balanced and spicy. It went down very smooth on this hot day while I enjoyed the cooling effects of the canopy and the running water below. I detected a hint of clove amongst the spicy flavors in this wonderful beer. ($2)

This is certainly the most well known Lithuanian dish. The two blimps you see are aptly named "Zepplins" (don't ask me how you say that in Lithuanian, the language is quite a mystery). Basically you have a potato dumpling encasing a bit of minced-meat topped with grilled onions. On the side you get a huge dallop of sour cream and what can only be described as a pool of oil. Not exactly health food.

There are so many historical sites that this one isn't even considered one of the major ones. But you can't miss this church when you come to Vilnius. I saw a Russian couple getting married here.

Now this is a historical site. The Golden Virgin Mary above the only existing gate left from the original city wall is considered a miracle by the traditionally minded. Back in the day, men would take their hats off and bow before passing under. Today, only the most pious of the elderly cross themselves before going under.

Here you can see the whole gate. Originally there were (I believe) 5 of them. This is the only remaining.

As an example of the destruction of artifacts, here you see the crosses on the hill that the Russians knocked down....

Here is the story. (Click to make bigger)

This plaque commemorates George W Bush's visit to Lithuania (the first American president to do so). It is proudly displayed on City Hall. If you look close, you can see where someone threw something at it. Click on it and see what it says. All I can say is, "yeah right. And what?"
Didn't WWI take off because of excessive treaties? That is a rhetorical question.

Putting Conspiracies to Rest

2007-07-30T20:48:00.000+02:00

Hope you like it.

Why Do They Hate Us?

2007-07-23T08:52:00.000+02:00

This is a question I've attempted to answer in the past. My good friends on the right cannot hear my arguments without considering me an America hater. Perhaps that is because my diction fails me.

Here, Moshin Hamid hits it on the head in a way that I could only dream of.

Here is a taste:

But there is another major reason for anti-Americanism: the accreted residue of many years of U.S. foreign policies. These policies are unknown to most Americans. They form only minor footnotes in U.S. history. But they are the chapter titles of the histories of other countries, where they have had enormous consequences.

[...]

The challenge that the United States faces today boils down to a choice. It can insist on its primacy as a superpower, or it can accept the universality of its values. If it chooses the former, it will heighten the resentment of foreigners and increase the likelihood of visiting disaster upon distant populations -- and vice versa. If it chooses the latter, it will discover something it appears to have forgotten: that the world is full of potential allies.

As they say, read the whole thing.

Not Too Much to Ask

2007-07-21T10:20:00.000+02:00

When I saw this article I couldn't help but to recall all the arguments I've had with right-wingers over the last couple of years, and how Bush seems to keep coming over to my side. The announcement yesterday that the CIA, and all Federal agencies for that matter, would have to follow Geneva Convention rules is the latest in a string of such decisions made by the president which were made with good judgment and are aligned with "what we have been saying."

Before I get to the others, I just want to mention that all of the arguments I've had with an ex-District Attorney friend of mine are now moot. It doesn't matter if "enemy combatants" fall under the jurisdiction of Article 3. It doesn't matter if stress positions are in The Big Book of Torture. It doesn't matter that no one else provides our soldiers with the same protections. The point was, is, and always will be that it is wrong to do these things, and if we believe in the sanctity of law and expect to live in a just world, we must abide by the treaties we have signed, both in letter and spirit. (I know Roger, you have a hard time with the concept of hypocrisy , but the Geneva Convention falls into this category of practice what you preach even if others don't). Now president Bush agrees with me. I wonder if this has changed Roger's mind.

Indeed, we don't hear the right clamoring over their pet issues once the administration drops them. The right screamed bloody murder at your correspondent over many issues that the administration has since flipped on. Let name a few....

1. Bi-lateral talks with North Korea.
2. Any level of talks with Iran (despite uranium enrichment).
3. Domestic surveillance without a warrant.

And now that the administration has flipped, where is the outrage? Where is the indignation? Why don't they criticize the Bush administration for doing what we were assured at best would be ineffectual and at worst will put our lives in danger?

Where are all those brilliantly crafted arguments now that the Hero-in-Chief has switched to the side of pragmatism?

You could hear a pin drop.

BTW: I'll get back to posting pictures after I get home. This connection is way to slow to be bothered.

Vilnius: First Impression

2007-07-19T14:00:00.000+02:00

Here is the building we are staying from the outside. You can see a single balcony which is ours. The shop on the ground floor is a lovely little cafe. The waitresses wear knee-socks.

Here you see the view from the balcony down the street. We are situated right in the heart of old town. It is pretty nice.

One of the things you notice right away when you come to Vilnius is that busking is very popular. The lady shown here is actually quite good (and not bad looking). But some of the young kids are terrible. There is a clarinet player that knows about 3 songs (sort of). "Yesterday," "Strangers in the Night," and a local song that people seem to know. At least the last one he plays reasonably well, but if I have to listen to him massacre strangers in the night one more time, I might go mad.

So far I'm really enjoying it here. It is very calm and unpretentious. The women are outstandingly beautiful (and remember, I live in Prague). Prices are quite reasonable, and although the service seems a bit indifferent, it certainly isn't hostile. Hey, it is Eastern Europe after all: what do you expect?

Postscript: Click on photos for full-size hi-res.

Vilnius

2007-07-18T13:52:00.000+02:00

I have just arrived in Vilnius, the capital city of Lithuania. The street our apartment is on looks very much like the one in the picture. I'll be posting my own pictures and commentary over the next few days.

First impression: very mellow. Having said that, I did see a guy walking down the street with blood streaming down the side of his face. He looked like a drunk who had taken a bad header and was now wandering home.

So I hope you will join me over the next five days. I finally have some time to post, and I'll be reading you blogs too.

Greetings for Friday the 13th

2007-07-13T22:31:00.000+02:00

If you hear anything new on a Friday, it gives you another wrinkle on your face, and adds a year to your age.

Get the lowdown on Friday the 13th at snopes.

Sorry about the wrinkles.

Money Quote

2007-07-12T00:53:00.000+02:00

Words have power, Mr. Secretary. You must choose them wisely—especially when they relate to the lives and security of the American public. What color code in the Homeland Security Advisory System is associated with a “gut feeling?”

-Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie G. Thompson

Story Here

Jitters

2007-07-10T22:12:00.000+02:00

Global Equity markets are down across the board today. The Dow, for example, closed down 150 points with subprime mortgages and disappointing earnings cited (Sears lost 10% of its value today, for example). Oil is back above $72 on the NYMEX and the dollar is at an all-time low against the Euro.

But this is really not as bad as it sounds. I've been saying that stocks are a bit overvalued citing "irrational exuberance" more than once. Earnings are not keeping pace with market valuations, so I see this correction as a healthy one. I have also been steadfast in my belief that the Fed will not cut rates anytime soon and there is a still a chance that they will hike rates before the year ends. Fed fund futures now agree with me as a rate-hike possibility is now derived as about 50-50 by year's end. With not a single major national bank seen cutting rates in the last year, and almost all in a rate-hike mode, I think my prediction is well safe.

One last thing I want to mention is that the Dow consolidating between 13,300 and 13,700. We are getting a shrinking range since the beginning of June. I haven't seen this kind of neutral pattern in years. I expect this cone to squeeze down further until the pattern breaks. If it breaks down, we could see a significant drop.

Will earnings prevent a serious bloodletting? We shall see.

Overheard

2007-07-10T22:07:00.000+02:00

The dollar is a casualty of globalization.

-David Woo (Barclays Capital)

Today in Czech History

2007-07-06T10:05:00.000+02:00

On today's date in 1415, Jan Hus, leader of the "Hussites", was burned at the stake in Konstance, Germany. Bohemian (Czech) born, his teachings greatly contributed to the Protestantism. Although there are few Protestants in modern day Czech Republic, Hus is regarded as a hero and today is a national holiday here.

I think the hero status comes from the fact that he stood up to authority and made a real impact on the world. A rare figure indeed in the history of this region.

Cyril & Metoděj

2007-07-05T18:59:00.000+02:00

Today is a holiday in the Czech Republic, celebrating the Sts. Cyril (formerly Constantine) and Methodius. Cyril is much more famous as the alphabet he invented is the precursor to Cyrillic script which many of the Slavic languages still use. But Methodius did a great deal more in developing the written form of the Slavonic language which the Czech language is based on. He translated nearly the entire Bible and many other religious texts and preached in Slavonic despite pressure from the Germans. He spent time imprisoned for his efforts which makes him quite a hero here. It is likely that the Czech identity may very well have been completely lost if not for the efforts of Cyril and Metoděj (Czech spelling).

They are now patron saints throughout Europe. They were some pretty hip Catholics if you ask me.

More information is available here.

Health Insurance

2007-07-04T15:03:00.000+02:00

First of all, my apologies for being absent for so long. I feel pretty bad about it, but what can I do? I've just finished my most recent job and I had to move my things from my bachelor pad up in Liberec (60 miles north of Prague) to my real residence here in Prague. In between I've been going to interviews (I have already been offered one job), and trying to keep up with my studies (and doing a poor job of it).

So this post is about health insurance. Here in the Czech Republic, the health system is a confusing mix of private and public. There are a few insurers, but the largest is a state-run enterprise. Doctors are mostly private, but they generally are paid through the insurance programs which somewhat limit the scope of the treatment. Dentists that conform to the rules and have low co-pays are to be avoided at all costs. I pay cash for dentistry, but it is still nearly free compared to what I am used to in the states (for example, I had oral surgery last year because of an infection around the roots of two teeth which cost me $200).

As far as regular doctors go, generally people don't pay anything, although sometimes you have to pay for medications. This system is not perfect, but for the cost, it is amazing.

The Cost

Medical insurance is paid along with payroll taxes, the employer and employee paying nearly equal parts. So as your pay goes up, so does your insurance. Any government regulated program will probably have to have something like this, otherwise, the indigent simply cannot afford to pay. It is required by law that everyone has insurance (children under 5 are free). Now that I am unemployed, I was required to register to pay my own insurance. I now have insurance for almost exactly $50 per month.

I think I'm getting a pretty good deal.

Must Watch

2007-06-25T22:00:00.000+02:00

As regular readers know, I really don't have time to blog properly anymore.

I will, therefore, only bother with things I find really interesting or really funny. This is mostly the former, and a little of the latter.

Seriously, watch it. Then, please give me your thoughts.

This thread could be a long one..... I hope.

Still No Time

2007-06-20T20:56:00.000+02:00

There was a time way back when, when you might say I was cool. I crafted my dancing skills through punishing partying at "rave" parties and clubs. I was (and still am) an avid follower of music. I even got paid to DJ in some clubs in Prague.

This is me now.......

I'm studying "Economic Analysis for Managerial Decision Making." I'm drawing supply and demand curves, finding the equilibrium level, figuring elasticity, and generally being a nerd.

I kind of like it though.

School Time

2007-06-15T01:51:00.000+02:00

So, I don't really have time to blog, as I'm back in school right now. But let me tell you this.

I got to speak with my professor of Managerial Economics over beers tonight. After some pleasantries, we got down to business. We explored the idea of world economic systems, and agreed that there was not one solution. He gave me a lot of leeway on a theory that we are living in an era of an overreaction to the last failed system which was based on central planing.

It is accepted, today, that free-markets and democracy are the best idea for economics and politics respectively. Now, they may well be the best we've come up with so far, but there is never a static state of human affairs. That is to say, if you come upon some solution that appears to be better than all systems which came before it, that is not cause to disregard other approaches to the human condition, even if they resemble the failed ideas of old.

The fastest growing economies in the world are nearly all directed by political systems that are inherently undemocratic. To say that central planning, one of the most important tenants of communism is a failed idea, is to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Planning is an integral part of every business. Businesses listen to the market, but in the end they plan. The more organized a company, or a country, can be, the more efficient it will run.

Now the market has a way of determining things at more nuanced levels for which there is not currently--and likely will never be--any substitute. To ignore consumer demand and the other principles of market economics, is at this stage pure suicide. But to profess that these forces are the end all, the solution to everything, is pure folly.

As human beings, we decided, we must always realize that the current system is imperfect. That systems that work in one place well, may work poorly in the next. When everyone starts thinking the same way, that is when everything will collapse. But, this will not happen so long as the spirit of open thinking, and acceptance for others customs and different ideas about how to do things, remains alive.

We must never get so satisfied with ourselves, or think that we have the answer. NO! We must always strive to incorporate the best, or most relevant parts of any system, past or theoretical, into the current one. There is no ultimate answer to the question of politics or economics. If there was, life would be boring.

Trade Defict

2007-06-12T16:45:00.000+02:00

My Uncle believes that the media is biased and that if the drop in the trade deficit to "only" $58 billion last month had happened during a Democratic administration it would have been front page news.

I think this chart puts things in perspective. You can just barely see the drop from $61 billion to $58 billion on the far right hand side of the chart. Does that look like front page news to you?

While we are on the economy, I think the smart money is taking some off the table.

Oh, and don't miss this piece. The link will only be good for a couple of days. This helps confirm my suspicion that inflation will continue to be a problem looking forward, rates will not get cut, and the stock market will have to come back to some sort of reality.

This is in direct contrast to my all-knowing reader's contention that rates don't matter, inflation will remain low, and the current levels in the stock market correspond to realistic earnings potential.

Of course, when I'm proven right, my dear reader will contend that he never said that.

UPDATE: Looking at the chart, I want to be clear that the small down turn in at the very right of the chart is not that noticeable slope on the last half inch of the screen, but rather the almost invisible little down turn that represents about a millimeter at the very far right. Literally, you have to squint to see it.

Yummy Czech Export

2007-06-11T17:29:00.000+02:00

Man, I'm hungry now.

Jefferson: Not Guilty?

2007-06-08T23:13:00.000+02:00

Rep. William Jefferson has pleaded not guilty to over a dozen felony charges that boil down to one simple thing: corruption.

Now, I'm one to consider people innocent until proven guilty, but when it comes to politicians, I usually write them off upon indictment, with few exceptions. This is not one of the exceptions. I think in this case, the shear magnitude of the charges tells me that he has to be guilty. Oh, and then of course there is the $90,000 in cash in the freezer. I mean, seriously, who in their right mind could accept any explanation for that?

Jefferson proclaims his innocence in a way that makes him sound guilty.

This is not who we are. This is not who I am. This is not what I have done.

This? Not these charges are false, but "this is not what I have done"? If there is a this, doesn't that mean that it is? If "this" is not what I have done, then who did it? Did someone plant that money in your freezer Mr. Jefferson?

If the man had any honor (which obviously he doesn't) he would keep his mouth shut and take his punishment like a man. Instead we get this...

They can attempt to break one, psychologically and financially . . . No matter what, the truth will always come to light.

Let's hope.

Some Quick Bits

2007-06-07T23:03:00.000+02:00

So the Dow is down nearly 200 points today. That is a total of 400 points down since Friday's close. This is still a drop in the bucket. What did I say yesterday? Oh yeah, 1,000 point drop is in the cards in the coming months. Well, 800 to go now. I'm still tickled pink that what I knew last summer, the professionals are realizing now. Forget about a rate cut. If anything, worry about a hike.

***************

Putin suggested putting the missile defense system in Azerbaijan. Brilliant move on Putin's part. He offered to cooperate on a system that would be much more effective against Iran in a location that Russia has access to by way of treaty. Even Hadley admits this makes sense. President Bush?

***************

I'm getting much more quality hits. I'm pretty lazy about checking my meter, but since I don't pay and can only look back on the last 100 hits, I have to check every other day to keep up. For some reason Google is rating me pretty high on some quite general searches like "Czech Missiles" for instance. I am getting a visit from the Naval Ocean Systems in Washington DC pretty regularly now. Not via searches either. They have me bookmarked apparently. Welcome, whoever you are. Leave a comment sometime. Also, the EU commission in Brussels checked me out for about five minutes yesterday. I hope they come back.

I guess my persistence is starting to pay off. Maybe I should do some advertising..... Nah!

Traders Come to Their Senses

2007-06-06T22:48:00.000+02:00

All three major indices (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P) ended down nearly a full percentage point today as traders finally realized that the Fed will not be cutting rates any time soon.

I've been saying since the last hike nearly a year ago that a cut is not imminent and that the risk for a further hike still exists. Stubborn inflation indicators including increased unit labor costs will continue to influence Fed action for the foreseeable future. Strong resource utilization (low unemployment) is probably the most important factor driving inflation at the present time, but persistently high energy costs should not be ignored.

Morgan Stanley issued a "triple sell" recommendation for European stocks citing their analysis that European markets are as much as 14% overvalued. Traders fear that U.S. equities may be similarly overpriced.

It is satisfying to know I've been right all along. If only I knew how to profit from that, I wouldn't have to work.

This is a healthy correction, but I believe that the Dow could easily drop another 1000 points in the coming months as bond yields continue to rise reflecting the reality of a hawkish rate regime.

The Eagle has Landed

2007-06-05T12:58:00.000+02:00

George Bush is in the country becoming the first American president to twice visit the Czech Republic in his official capacity.

Pictured with him is president Vaclav Klaus and his wife, and of course that is Laura Bush hiding behind the president.

While most people think the cold war ended in 1989, and that recent developments mark the start of a new chilling of U.S./Russia relations, George Bush declared just today that the cold war is over. What a relief! Who knew?

This weekend I spent some time talking to some older Czech folks regarding their feelings about the missile defense system. The conclusion I kept hearing is that although they don't particularly like Russia, they understand Putin's concern. "Why wasn't Putin consulted first? Why not put the defense system IN Russia?"

I think Klaus may have brought these points to president Bush's attention. Today, president Bush said...

My message will be Vladimir — I call him Vladimir — you shouldn't fear a missile defense system. As a matter of fact, why don't you cooperate with us on a missile defense system.

That message would have carried a lot more weight about six months ago. Yet another foreign policy blunder that president Bush has committed. This one, however, is at the direct expense of my resident nation.

Let's just hope Vladimir is in a forgiving mood.

UPDATE: Two good articles on the subject (1, 2) Thanks to Abi for the first one and my friend Matthew (who doesn't blog) for the second.

China Leads America on Climate Change?

2007-06-04T16:22:00.000+02:00

China has just announced that they plan to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. Bush had been prodding China to reduce its greenhouse gases and has given lip-service to doing the same at home, but no specific policy prescriptions are forthcoming.

Those who doubt mankind's role in global warming and/or feel that the U.S. should not take the lead in reducing emissions have made many arguments to support their case. One of these arguments has just been laid to rest. How many times have we heard that it is pointless for the U.S. to reduce carbon emissions if China will not do the same? It is absolutely absurd to think that the U.S. should be following China's lead on this or any other issue. As the worlds largest economy, the largest producer of greenhouse gases, and arguably the world's conscience, the U.S. has a clear obligation to take the lead on this issue, or abandon it outright. However, those who wanted China to act first on this issue have just got their wish.

Those who argue that global warming is not attributable to man's carbon emissions warn that taking action to restrict carbon emissions will devastate the economy. Again, this argument is well off base as it has been estimated that restricting carbon emissions as currently proposed will reduce world growth by approximately .1% per year. That is hardly what one would call devastating.

Furthermore, even if we assume that global warming is not caused by human beings, would restricting carbon emissions be such a bad idea anyway? Currently businesses are investing large sums of money on research and development of technologies that would reduce not only carbon emissions, but all emissions. We know that investment creates jobs, and this type of investment will create jobs and demand for professionals in the the engineering field. In this era of record corporate profits coupled with less than impressive business investment, throwing a bit of money at this problem could end up being a net gain for the economy. In fact, now that so much investment has been made in anticipation of new regulations on carbon emissions, if government restrictions do not follow, this investment will dry up rendering the earlier investment useless.

It seems clear that since coal is so abundant and easy to use, sooner or later it will all be burnt. It stands to reason, therefore, that the sooner we develop cleaner ways to burn coal, the less pollution will be created in the long term. Another thing we know about technology derived through research and development is that often new discoveries are found along the way which benefit all of mankind in unpredictable ways. We have no idea how many new, beneficial technologies will be unintentionally discovered along the way. Furthermore, one of the most effective ways to reduce emissions is to increase efficiency. So even if man is not responsible for global warming, our efforts to reduce emissions through more efficient technologies will benefit mankind through increased efficiency and the development of new technologies that will likely provide solutions to other problems.

It seems clear that even if human beings are not responsible for global warming, we all stand to benefit from business investment in emission reduction, both in known and unknown ways.

Does it make more sense for the U.S. or China to take the lead in this endeavor?

Missle Defense Debate Heats Up

2007-06-01T09:20:00.001+02:00

The most recent poll indicates that most Czechs still oppose the planned missile defense system to be built partially in the Czech Republic. 61% of Czechs now report opposition to the plan, and a full 75% believe there should be a referendum held to decide on the subject.

For those of you who are a little behind the curve, the U.S. is negotiating directly with Poland and the Czech Republic to build a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. The missiles would be located in Poland, whereas the radar system would be located about 30 miles from Prague on a disused military base near the town of Brdy.

Opinions are sharpening on the question as the "Don't Know" responses are dropping with each new poll. One of the main complaints I've heard is that this project is being negotiated bi-laterally between the U.S. and the Czech Republic, and also bi-laterally between the U.S. and Poland. Critics hope to see Poland and the Czech Republic, or ideally the European members of N.A.T.O., negotiate with the U.S. They argue such unity would strengthen Poland's and the Czech Republic's bargaining position.

Meanwhile, Russia has recently conducted a test of a new I.C.B.M. which Vladimir Putin says is a direct response to the missile defense system. Putin had some other choice quotes in the article which are worth reprinting. I suspect the media in the U.S. has not taken much notice of these quotes...

"It wasn't us who initiated a new round of arms race."

"We have signed and ratified the CFE and are fully implementing it. We have pulled out all our heavy weapons from the European part of Russia to (locations) behind the Ural Mountains and cut our military by 300,000 men," Putin said.

"And what about our partners? They are filling eastern Europe with new weapons. A new base in Bulgaria, another one in Romania, a (missile defense) site in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic," [Putin] said. "What we are supposed to do? We can't just sit back and look at that."

"It's dangerous and harmful," he added. "Norms of the international law were replaced with political expediency. We view it as diktat and imperialism."

And Putin is not the only one complaining about the U.S.'s disregard for the preservation of peace. With George Bush scheduled to visit the Czech Republic just three days from now, a citizen has filed a criminal complaint against him for "suspicion of the criminal offense of propagation of and incitement of war." Of course, this has everything to do with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and nothing (officially) to do with the missile defense system, but the point is clear: George Bush is certainly not perceived by many as a friend to peace.

Republicans in a Dead Heat

2007-05-30T18:05:00.000+02:00

After briefly passing Giuliani for the lead, the market has turned it's back on McCain who is now fourth out of the four significant Republican candidates (was it the Guatemalan comment?).

Giuliani is back in the lead but precariously so garnering only 26 cents on a $1 contract. Romney and Thompson are in a dead heat, both at about 23.5 cents, and McCain is now bringing up the rear at about 18 cents.

The Democratic race is boring. Mrs. Clinton continues to be way ahead of the only serious contender. I'm sorry, but I just spent a weekend with a friend of mine from Kansas. He is not prejudiced, but speaking for his neighbors, Mr. Obama is not going to win the Kansas primary. We've come a long way, but in my opinion Mr. Obama has about as much chance of winning the primary (much less the general) as I do.

So for entertainment purposes, it is all about the Republican primary.

National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive

2007-05-29T21:56:00.000+02:00

Read IT yourself and be the judge.

(h/t Romunov)

Czech Library

2007-05-28T14:00:00.001+02:00

Here you see the winning design for the new Czech National Library. It has caused a bit of a stir amongst Prague residents, many of whom are vehemently opposed to anything that looks like it was created after 1900. Most recently, Czech architects have defended the design.

I'm curious. What do you all think?

Beautiful? Ugly? Amazing? Horrendous?

Personally, I kind of like it, but I'm not sure if it fits in Prague.

UPDATE: Here is a good areal view of the location. (Scroll down a bit)

Funny Thing

2007-05-23T23:23:00.000+02:00

As Romney's chances to get the Republican nomination wax....

The Republican's chances to win the election wane....

Coincidence?

School is Fun, but Demanding

2007-05-23T13:45:00.000+02:00

Reality-based Educator asks, "Hey PT, how is school?" Well, as the title of the post suggests, I'm enjoying it quite a bit, but it is taking an awful lot of my time. I've finished ethics, but I still have to do the project and take the exam. We are also half-way through the financial accounting course, which is very demanding.

The class is amazing. From 21 students, we have 9 nationalities represented. Several people have quite high positions in very large companies. Everyone is working together and helping each other. It is quite different from my undergraduate studies. Taking notes on a laptop rules!!!

In the meantime, I snuck out to Amsterdam for a friend of mine's bachelor party. He just finished 2 years as a foreign correspondent in Iraq for USA today. As you can probably guess, I picked his brain extensively and he has given me permission to quote him here on this blog. That will be my next post of substance.

Stay tuned (now and then).

River Blindness

2007-05-16T20:13:00.000+02:00

Onchocerciasis, or "River Blindness" as it is sometimes called, is a horrible disease caused by a parasite. If affects mostly poor people in sub-Sahara Africa.

Merck, of Vioxx infamy, discovered a drug that had the potential to treat this disease back in 1978. However, they were faced with the dilemma that it would cost about $100 million just to develop the drug which they would probably never recover. They decided to develop it anyway. By 1987, they had successfully developed the drug. No government or NGO would help them with production costs or even distribution, so they decided to produce it for free and distribute it themselves.

Here is a recent update on the progress of their program.

Being generally pessimistic about large corporations, and especially pharmaceutical companies, I was quite surprised to learn of this in my business ethics class.

Way to go Merck. I'll give credit when it's due.

McCain Train Takes the Lead!!!!

2007-05-15T00:31:00.000+02:00

The numbers speak for themselves.

Drudge Trumps Debate

2007-05-10T22:05:00.000+02:00

McCain surges.

Giuliani fades.

Matt Drudge is now officially more influential than a nationally televised debate.

I am aghast.

Speed Blogging

2007-05-09T20:36:00.000+02:00

In a unanimous decision, the Federal Reserve has decided to keep rates on hold. This is exactly what I expected and continue to see for the near future. It gets kind of boring to say over and over again, but quite simply, despite slowing growth largely attributable to the housing market and the manufacturing sector (chiefly the automotive sector) inflation pressures will prevent the Fed from cutting rates any time in the near future. The absolute earliest chance is now the August meeting, but I figure that it is likely that rates will stay on hold until at least September, and I'm not ruling out a hike by the end of the year.

The statement was slightly more hawkish than the last, but largely the same. Wall street is experiencing some ripples, but nothing drastic.

At least not yet.

Time For Change

2007-05-08T16:39:00.000+02:00

Well, I've just taken the big plunge. I've signed a contract with a prestigious university for a Master's of Business Administration (MBA) program. It is a condensed program designed for those of us who work, but they say that it will still take me about 20 hours per week to get through it. That is every week for the next 14 months.

My first class is Financial Accounting, and the book is dense to say the least. I have to get through 4 chapters by Friday.

I'm guessing that this endeavor is going to seriously cut into my blogging time. I'm going to try to get posts up now and then, but I fear the consistency of my blogging is bound to suffer. What's worse is that my consistency of visiting all of your sites is probably going to suffer even more.

Perhaps it won't suffer as much as I think, but I feel it is better to put out the disclaimer ahead of time just in case.

Insane Conservatives (The Final Chapter)

2007-05-06T17:51:00.000+02:00

Hopefully this will be the final chapter in the ongoing saga. (Part 1, Part 2)

I seem to have finally got the last word in. So in the interests in full disclosure, here are the last three communications...

Nathan,

I've tried time and time again to find the information that you claim you have given me. I will suspend disbelief one last time and assume that I have failed to find it, but as far as I can tell, my answer[sic] has never been answered. If it has, I respectfully request that you direct me to the place where you have answered my question and provided the source document that backs up Paul's claim.

Here, you can see our email exchange. It looks quite strange: almost as if I've left something out. If I have, please direct me to the missing information. If you cannot, I can only assume that you suffer from delusions.

http://praguetwin.blogspot.com/2007/04/insane-conservatives-part-2.html

Still waiting for the source document,

Michael

p.s. read the comments.

********

Michael, once again. I didn’t write the article which is a fact you seem to ignore. Read the disclaimer at the bottom of every page.

The missing information is you are trying to hold me accountable for a claim I didn’t make.

When you don’t tell your audience this it is the blind leading the blind. I am sure your readers will be quite disappointed to find out you have misled them. Actually, probably not.

The truth is you made a claim that you didn’t keep. You said I wrote an article and as soon as I backed up my claims you would apologize. I wrote back and said I didn’t write the article you needed to ask the author. So, I’m still waiting on your apology.

You trying to hold me accountable for another work is ridiculous. Do you support everything written on every liberal blog?

It is sad that you don’t have better logic.

Nathan

********

Nathan,

I'm well aware that you didn't write the article. I've never said that you did. I've only requested that you, as the editor, help me source a claim made on your website. Your disclaimer only shows that you are irresponsible. As I've stated many times, Paul's email does not appear on the website. I've asked you to put me in touch with him, which you have not.

You have repeatedly stated in your emails that I have been given the information which I have requested. This, of course, is completely untrue. You have not given me the information I've requested, nor has Paul, nor has anyone else.

I most certainly don't support everything written on liberal blogs. I only support and back up what is written on mine.

You should try it some time.

As to the practice of logic, it is you who suffers. If A then B. If I get the information I request, then I will post an apology.

If no A, then no B.

That is where we stand.

Regards,

Michael

********

Yep, that is where we stand. No more responses from Nathan. I'd say game, set, match, except my email seems to have contracted some sort of dysfunction.

I'm sure it is unrelated.

Iraq

2007-05-04T16:37:00.000+02:00

You got questions?

The Brookings Institution has answers.

Extremely Rare Sports Post

2007-05-04T07:46:00.000+02:00

It has been a long, hard slog being a Warriors fan. But today, I have to say, it has been worth it. Last night, the Warriors eliminated the Dallas Mavericks becoming only the third 8th seed team to advance to the second round in NBA history.

Dallas with its 67-15 (by far the best in the NBA) was widely expected to win the title this year behind its leader Dirk Nowitzki who is generally considered the top MVP candidate.

After 13 years without a post-season, the Warriors made the playoffs on the last game of the season after winning 11 of their last 15 games and five strait down the stretch. The key moment in the season was when coach Don Nelson engineered a huge trade which brought Stephen Jackson and Al Harington to the Warriors and sent Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy to Indiana.

Indiana finished well out of the playoff hunt in the much weaker Eastern conference.

Illogical Exuberance

2007-05-03T18:13:00.000+02:00

I talk a lot about the tendency for traders to engage in illogical exuberance. Traders will push the price of stock up for any number of reasons that often have little to do with fundamentals and logic. Prices go up based on speculation, but then when the speculators are proven wrong, prices don't go down. Last year we saw the Dow climb over and over again on poor data out of the U.S. Why? Poor data increases the chances that the Fed will reduce interest rates. Has the Fed reduced interest rates? No. Have the markets come back down to the levels we saw before the poor data led traders to believe the Fed would reduce interest rates?

Of course not.

Yesterday's rally in the Dow is a perfect case in point. The dow gained over 75 points hitting a new record high. Here is a clip from my daily report courtesy of Briefing.com.

For the 17th time this year the Dow closed in record territory. However, for the first time in weeks, the blue-chip index's gains weren't the direct result of solid earnings reports from some of its components but rather anticipation of an earnings surprise from General Motors (GM 32.49 +1.19) tomorrow morning. The latter paced the way among the 28 Dow stocks posting gains and was just one of many components that helped Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%) provide some notable leadership to the upside.

Oh, there was a surprse. You bet there was. It just wasn't the one that was anticipated.

Much worse than anyone expected.:

The Detroit giant handed in a profit of $62 million, or 11 cents a share, down from $602 million, or $1.06 a share, a year earlier. The latest results include charges that totaled $32 million, or 6 cents a share, largely related to restructuring actions in Europe and Asia Pacific.

Adjusted to exclude those items, the Dow component posted earnings of $94 million, or 17 cents a share, in the latest quarter.

Revenue slid to $43.91 billion from $52.38 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had called for a profit of 87 cents a share in the March period on revenue of $40.88 billion.

General Motors is down just over 3% despite their pathetic performance. The Dow is up about 10 points.

Global warming

2007-05-03T16:07:00.000+02:00

(Figure 1: Fluctuations in temperature (blue) and in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (red) over the past 400,000 years as inferred from Antarctic ice-core records. The vertical red bar is the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past two centuries and before 2006.)

With all the pundits on both side throwing around numbers and claims (unsubstatiated), I prefer to look at the raw data. They say a picture is worth a thousand words.

Keep burying your head in the sand doubters.

The Future

2007-05-02T17:56:00.000+02:00

This car is absolutely amazing. An electric car that does 0 to 60 in four seconds?! Why haven't I heard about this? Here is the official website. Also, Vanity Fair has a good article on the history of the Tesla Roadster.

Now the only question is where do we get the juice?

Nukes?

Other ideas?

Also, since I live on the fourth (fifth to you Americans) floor of an apartment building, how exactly am I supposed to plug mine in? Just thinking out loud here.

International Worker's Day

2007-05-01T14:05:00.000+02:00

Today is International Worker's Day, or more simply, May Day. It is a holiday nearly everywhere in the world except in the United States, Canada, and South Africa. This is particularly strange since its origins are in the United States and the 1886 Haymarket Riot in Chicago.

I've found a couple of good links on the history and significance of May Day (1, 2). Here is a good quote from the latter of the two links...

Truly, history has a lot to teach us about the roots of our radicalism. When we remember that people were shot so we could have the 8-hour day; if we acknowledge that homes with families in them were burned to the ground so we could have Saturday as part of the weekend; when we recall 8-year old victims of industrial accidents who marched in the streets protesting working conditions and child labor only to be beat down by the police and company thugs, we understand that our current condition cannot be taken for granted - people fought for the rights and dignities we enjoy today, and there is still a lot more to fight for. The sacrifices of so many people can not be forgotten or we'll end up fighting for those same gains all over again. This is why we celebrate May Day.

Also my post from last year has some decent points.

No big protests this year? I wonder why?

Postscript: Big protests all over. Just much less coverage by the mainstream media this year.

Slowing Growth

2007-04-30T10:31:00.000+02:00

First quarter advanced estimate of GDP growth in the U.S. came in at an anemic 1.3%. This was far less than the consensus 1.8% estimates, or the more pessimistic Briefing.com estimate of 1.5%. This is an advance number, so an upward revision is possible.

More troubling than the slowing growth is the ever increasing inflation pressures. The PCE chain deflater (which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) rose to 4.0% which, like the GDP figure, surprised most analysts.

Roger asks why European rates of growth are a concern. Well, first of all, this is not a European rate of growth whatsoever. The Euro area is outpacing U.S. growth currently (Q4) and with these numbers, the gap is sure to widen.

But more importantly, with the dollar weakening, and inflation pressures much stronger in the U.S. as a result, a slowing economy will create other problems, namely budgetary ones. Currently, the Public Debt in the U.S. is over $8.8 trillion and is growing at well over 5% per year, amounting to nearly 70% of GDP. The Bush tax plan seeks to spur economic growth by reducing the tax burden of the investor class. This growth, then, will increase tax revenue despite lower tax rates. Many, such as Alan Greenspan, suggest that there is no way to verify weather or not this tax plan is actually the catalyst for growth that the supply-siders claim. But more importantly, with reduced taxes, if the economy underperforms, the debt will be sent soaring. Likewise, if inflation outpaces economic growth, the benefits of that growth are erased.

In short, sub-European rates of growth in the U.S. are problematic because the budget is dependent on high rates of growth to sustain itself. Europe, with higher taxes, is less dependent on growth to meet their budget targets. Furthermore, inflation in the U.S. is outpacing inflation in the Euro zone by nearly 35%. This makes greater economic growth in the U.S. even more vital if we are to enjoy its benefits. Right now we may be seeing the beginning of the dreaded stagflation which has been at the doorstep for quite some time.

Finally, as markets continue to react overoptimistically, the potential for a much more disruptive correction which can cause a ripple effect around the world increases daily.

Insane Conservatives (Part 2)

2007-04-30T09:04:00.000+02:00

Nearly two weeks ago, I posted about some Insane Conservatives. Essentially, the claim was made that lynchings in the 19th and 20th century were largely politically motivated, and it was the Democratically controlled legal apparatus of the southern states that precluded the perpetrators from facing trial for their crimes.

I thought the claim was rather dubious, so I posted a comment requesting some substantiation to the claim. Then I went out and tried to substantiate or refute it myself (original post).

I couldn't find anything in the source documents, and I didn't get a response to my question on the forum. So, I wrote to the editor (editor@theconservativevoice.com). I didn't really expect to hear back from them, but I did, several times. Of course, I never did get any evidence to back up their claim, but I did get a litany of name calling directed at me that I haven't received since grade school.

For your enjoyment, here is the exchange I've enjoyed over the past couple of weeks. Keep in mind logic 101: If A, then B. I never got A, but the editor expects B.

Dear Nathan,

Thanks for the account. I have posted a question regarding your claim that most lynchings were politically motivated and against Republicans.

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/24248.html

If you could please cite your source for this dubious claim, I would be most appreciative.

You can see the work I have done in an effert to substaiate or debunk the claim you have made here on my blog....

http://praguetwin.blogspot.com/2007/04/insane-conservatives.html

If you can substantiate your claim, I will post a retraction of this post along with an apology.

If you can not, I expect that you will do the same on your blog.

Thanks and best regards,

Michael
(Prague Twin)

********

Michael, words like dubious and insane conservatives don’t lend to an open minded discussion. Best of luck!

Nathan Tabor

********

Nathan,

I am doubting the claim, thus it is dubious to me by definition. As to the insane conservative part, if you back up the claim, which is in doubt, I will be glad to post an apology as I mentioned.

Regards,

Michael

*******

Michael – since you obviously aren’t the brightest I will enlighten you – I didn’t write the piece – please talk with Paul

Please post an apology to me – thanks!

*******

Nathan,

I guess we are even. Personal attacks don't lead to open discussion, I think you would agree. You are the editor, are you not? Does not that make you responsible for the content? Usually when one questions the content of a publication, they address their concerns to the editor.

I'll post an apology as soon as I get a response to my question.

Perhaps you would be so kind as to pass on my concern to the writer, Paul, who's writing you have published on a site of which you claim to be the editor.

Michael

*******

Michael, perhaps you would like to read the disclosure at the bottom of the page.

You are a typical liberal. You say something then when given the truth you don’t keep your word. I would assume this is a character flaw with you.

If you have a problem with Paul post it in the forum.

Sorry you aren’t a man of your word.

Nathan

*******

Nathan,

I've been checking the forum nearly everyday since I posted my question on the 17th of April. When I last wrote you, on the 22nd there was still no response.

Usually, I am able to respond on my blog within 24 hours, so after 5 days of no responses, I was waiting to hear back from you via email.

Your personal attacks and stonewalling have been less than helpful. Currently, your blog is not loading, so if there is a response there, I'm unable to read it.

Perhaps you will let me know when your server is functioning again.

I am most certainly a man of my word, and as soon as I have the information I need from you or Paul, or anyone else from your establishment, I'll keep my promise.

Michael

*******

Your a liar Michael. The site is loading fine.

You made a promise that you didn’t keep. Once I provided you with my information you then changed your word – typical liberal.

Personally, I don’t care if you ever visit my site again.

Even your email now is a lie – I wrote you last and you didn’t respond.

Take care and try to become a man of character.

*******

Interjection: At this point I really started to wonder. Had I missed something? Did he provide the information? I checked the forum again and looked at all of the emails from Nathan. Nothing. This guy is truly insane. I mean, I think he really thinks he provided me with some information, but clearly he hasn't. The conversation continues.....

*******

Nathan,

I went back a couple of hours later and it was loading fine. Still, though, no response from Paul. I check this email once every 24 hours maximum so dont expect a response immediately.

I am not a liar, but you are certainly paranoid.

I made it clear that if you, Paul, or anyone else could substantiate the claim with which I took issue, I would post an apology. To date neither on the forum, nor via email have you, or Paul taken the time to do so. Instead I get a littany of abuse and undeserved titles.

You will kindly note that Paul's email does not appear on his profile, so your orginal suggestion that I take it up with Paul is misguided at best. I did take it up with him on the forum and, as I mentioned, to date have not received a response. Thus I took it up with you, and you've done nothing but abuse me, label me, and utterly fail to fulfill my most simple of requests: to source a claim made on your publication.

You are not only a poor editor, Nathan, you are childish and mean.

Best of luck,

Michael

*******

Michael, you can apologize now for lying – your latest email said you “I made it clear that if you, Paul, or anyone else could substantiate the claim with which I took issue, I would post an apology.”

However, you first email (below) says time and time again that you are challenging my claim and if I can substantiate my claim you would post an apology to me.

You call me paranoid (not sure why) - however, it is obvious you are ignorant and not a man of your word.

Your last part of your email is a typical whining liberal. You attack but then when confronted with the facts you try to act like a victim. Grow up and be a man.

Nathan

*******

Nathan,

O.K. Help me out. Maybe I'm not so bright. Where can I find substantiation of the claim?

Michael

*******

Waiting for your apology.

*******

As soon as you substantiate the claim, you'll get it.

*******

I’m sorry. I don’t deal with liars and those who don’t keep their word. You made a promise and then broke it. Take care.

*******

So here is the question. Do I put the basic logic question to Nathan once again? IF A, then B. Not B, irrespective of A.

Here is another one. Is he insane, or just a total idiot?

I'll let you all be the judges.

I'm It

2007-04-26T11:53:00.000+02:00

So I've been been tagged by Kvatch at Blognonymous. First of all, I just want to say I'm honored. I've never been tagged for anything before, but being included in Kvatch's list of "Blogs That Make You Think" has me feeling pretty good. Thanks Kvatch!

Two of his other picks, Club Lefty and Grub Stree Journal are also on my blog roll and very well may have made the cut in other circumstances. So leaving those two out, here are my picks for "Blogs That Make You Think."

A Republic, if you can keep it: David Schantz is a Constitutional Liberatarian. His "Question of the Week" every Sunday will get those synapses firing.

Left in East Dakota: Graeme is a Socialist who makes me consider the benefits of Socialism. Well done Graeme, that is a tall order.

Craig Murray: His header speaks for itself...
As Britain's outspoken Ambassador to the Central
Asian Republic of Uzbekistan, Craig Murray helped
expose vicious human rights abuses by the
US-funded regime of Islam Karimov. He is now
a prominent critic of Western policy in the region.

Mccs1977: Frederick can be a little vague sometimes. I like that. It makes me think.

XDA: Last but certainly not least, my blogfather, Roger, is a former DA from Colorado with whom I disagree on almost everything. But he is a thinking man, and loves a good fight. Enjoy!

I think I have a pretty good mix from left to right here. I hope you will all enjoy these picks.

HR 676

2007-04-25T16:07:00.000+02:00

I'm hearing some rumblings in my little blog world about supporting HR 676. Let me just say that I think universal health care is inevitable, and is needed. However, having said that, the transition is going to be very, very painful.

Total health care costs in the United States are running at $2 trillion per year. HR 676 proposes that this sum be paid for in the following manner:

(1) by vastly reducing paperwork; (2) by requiring a rational bulk procurement of medications; (3) from existing sources of Government revenues for health care; (4) by increasing personal income taxes on the top five percent income earners; (5) by instituting a modest payroll tax; and (6) by instituting a small tax on stock and bond transactions.

Ok, point (1) is a good one. Administrative costs may account for $500 billion so we could easily save $200 billion a year there. That would be great, but let's keep in mind that those costs would be largely saved by reducing the workforce in health care administration.

Point (2) is also a good one. Drug prices are outpacing even skyrocketing medical costs, and need to be reigned in. How much can actually be saved with this approach? That is anyone's guess, but let's be generous and say another $200 billion.

Point (3) is logical enough. The Government currently spends nearly $700 billion on health care (or $2,360 per person).

So the first three points are all logical and painless (unless you work for a hospital administrative unit or a pharmaceutical company). The next three involve some pain. We have to figure that despite the savings in drugs and administration, we are going to be facing at least another $1 trillion per year that is currently unfunded. So where will it come from?

Point (4) talks about raising taxes on the top 5% of wage earners. Since there are currently 146 million working men and women in the U.S., the top 5% represents about 7.3 million people who make on average about $260,000. If these 7.3 million people had their taxes raised by 10% (which is a lot) that would generate nearly $200 billion.

Ok, only $800 billion to go, and we are there.

Point (5) talks about a "modest payroll tax" being added. Now, I'm going to ignore point (6) for now because for one, it is a stupid idea which probably will backfire, and for two, it probably isn't going to raise that much money. Clearly, the bulk of the added resources will have to come from this "modest paroll tax." And what will this modest payroll tax be? Well, $800 billion divided by 146,000,000 (yeah, that top 5% who is already paying an additional $26,000 a year will have to pay it too) is.......

$5,479.45

I have been very kind in my calculations. I can't imagine that the top 5% is going to pay an additional $30,000 per year without a fight, and a lot of people are not going to be able to pay that amount, so the burden will have to be shifted up. Also, although the first two points will help to control the growth in health care costs, they are still going to grow. Also, don't forget that all those people who lose their jobs in the administrative industry are not going to be employed.

One final thought... what about all the people (like my sister, for example whose family pays nearly $1,000/month for insurance) who earn their living through investments such as real estate? I guess they get to shift the burden of their insurance on to the American worker? That is a HUGE whole in this plan.

Like I said, I think universal health care is a must, but HR 676 falls well short of providing it in any kind of sane or equitable manner.

The Buzz (or lack of it)

2007-04-24T13:08:00.000+02:00

By now, I'm sure you have all heard the buzz that the bees are disappearing.

I don't have much to add here except, seriously, it is time to panic. That, and that this type of event reminds us all that we live in an ecosytem that is interconnected. We can go on killing everything around us and destroying our environment, but some day, it is going to bite us back.

Let's hope it is not today.

Postscript: Another in-depth article (CSM)

h/t: Publia

Another Impetuous Move?

2007-04-21T18:28:00.000+02:00

The Dow has closed at a new record high for the third day in a row, largely due to better than expected earnings reports and higher oil prices. I'm sure consumers will be glad to know that Caterpillar is cutting huge profits and oil is surging up above $63 a barrel.

But all kidding aside, if you look at a one year chart, you will see that the big dip in February has been erased almost as if it wasn't there. What I though would be a wakeup call for investors to show a little restraint has been so quickly forgotten.

I had predicted a correction down to 11,700 before it would turn around. I missed by about 300 points (quite a significant amount). When I posted about "the golden ratio" a couple of weeks ago, I pointed out that if the 61.8% level were to be broken, we could expect a new high in "short order". Well, here we are.

I fear though that this all too fast. I am of the opinion that the February correction was a good thing, but that it didn't temper the market as it should have. We are off and running again. Let's see what happens in May when investors typically "go away."

UPDATE: Great article here by Larry Kudlow about inflationary risks, confirming my belief that the Fed should not, and probably will not lower interest rates. (h/t reality-based educator)

Guns and Healthcare

2007-04-20T13:03:00.000+02:00

Yesterday I mentioned that I would address some gun-control measures that I don't agree with. Without getting into too much detail, I don't think that nit-picky measures that say you can't have this or that gun, or that limit the amount of cartridges a magazine can hold do anything to prevent crime. Does it make a difference if I have 3 magazines with 10 rounds each, or if I have 2 magazines with 15 rounds each? Not a bit. I can't own an M16, but I can own an A15 and it is the same damn thing. Does the fact that I have to have a permanantly fixed magazine on my A15 prevent me from sniping people from a fourth story window? No, it just makes it a little bit harder to load.

At issue is not what weapons were used in the Virginia Tech massacre, but who used them.

Reality-based Educator sent me a very good article by Michael Isikoff from Newsweek. The basic point made is that Seung-Hui had no business buying the guns he used. He lied on the form, and the system in place should have prevented him from buying them. This bit of the article jumped out at me....

...groups like the NRA have long supported adding all relevant mental-health records to background check databases. "We have no problem as long as one is adjudicated mentally incompetent [in denying gun purchases] and we have no problem with mental health records being part of the NICS," the source said. "The problem is not with the gun community. The problem is with the medical community" that has traditionally opposed making such records available on privacy grounds.

Yesterday, I reviewed the Czech system for acquiring guns, and I highlighted the point that I need a note from my doctor that I am both physically and mentally fit to own a gun before I can purchase one. As I mentioned before, I think this system is preferable because unless I choose to purchase a gun, my medical records stay private and are not part of a national database.

Let me put that another way; if I am certifiably crazy, I can keep that a secret between me and my doctor unless I want to buy a gun. Under the American system, every time someone has an episode, their files should go into a a national database that is probably less than 100% secure, and as we have seen, much less than 100% complete.

So why can't there be such a system in the United States? "The problem is with the medical community." How many people don't even have a doctor? If you don't have a primary physician, who would issue the note? Here in the Czech Republic, everyone has a primary physician, and if you receive treatment elsewhere, your primary physician will know about it. But in the United States, with over 10% of the population uninsured, I'm sure many people don't even have a primary physician.

This is another way that the lack of comprehensive healthcare affects all Americans. Add to this the fact that psychological treatment is quite expensive, hard to come by (especially since the Federal Government absolved itself from funding it), and as was the case for Seung-Hui, not required for clearly insane people. It is clear to me that the lack of comprehensive healthcare affects all Americans, not just the ones without insurance.

More Thoughts on Gun Control

2007-04-19T18:09:00.000+02:00

Now that it has become clear that Cho Seung-Hui was certifiably insane, the question of gun-control has be addressed. Should people who have been determined to be a threat to themselves, as this man had, be allowed to purchase firearms?

I think the answer to that question from any sane person is a resounding, "no".

When I talk about the right to bear arms (1, 2), I don't consider that right to be free of limits.

One of the main complaints I'm hearing, especially from New Yorkers, is that guns are much too easy to purchase in this particular state in question, Virginia. As much as I hate to think that there should be a federal mandate, it seems a little strange that the States can interpret the Constitution however they want.

But more importantly, what we should be looking at is what are appropriate forms of gun-control, and what are not. This case highlights the need for proper background checks. Here in the Czech Republic, I can get a gun, but I need three things before I can get my license.

First I need to take a very simple training in how to safely handle a gun, and pass a test at the end. No big deal.

Second, I need a note from my doctor that I am both physically and mentally fit to own a gun. There are no medical tests or psychological examinations needed, but if I had a history of mental illness, my doctor would not give me the paper. This is a better system than a data-base because medical information remains in the hands of the doctors, and not on some government server. If I did have a history of mental illness, I wouldn't have to disclose that to the government. Only if I want a gun do I have to more or less prove that I am healthy. Again, no big deal.

Finally, I have to provide the police a reason for wanting a gun (hunters and target shooters have a bit of an advantage here, but I can just say "self-defense" and that is enough), and they have to sign off that I don't have a criminal record. Again, no big deal.

So I am not opposed to a similar system for the U.S. Perhaps instead of the class, you could just pass a proficiency exam, so that those who already know how to use guns don't have to waste too much time.

Sure, it seems like a hassle, but owning a gun is a very big responsibility, and like anything else you do in society that has the potential to harm others (like driving a car for example), you have to prove to society that you are capable of handling that responsiblity.

Obviously, Cho Seung-Hui was not.

(Tomorrow I will post some thoughts on gun-control that I think are not acceptable or useful.)

Insane Conservatives

2007-04-17T17:50:00.000+02:00

We all know that conservatives have been crying foul over media bias, claiming to be the victims of an unitentional but deadly "left-wing bias", but sometimes they really go too far. Take this post I found in the Conservative Voice. (O.K., actually my Uncle sent it to me, but what the hell, I guess that means I found it).

The April 11, 2007 edition of Salon.com, a leading liberal website, contains an article by Earl Ofari Hutchinson, titled, The Politics of Lynching. What is most peculiar about the article is that not once does Hutchinson mention that lynching was essentially a political crime, perpetrated by Democrats and their terrorist auxiliary, the KKK, against Republicans, both black and white.

Tuskegee Institute records tell us that, between the years 1882 and 1951, some 3,437 blacks and 1,293 whites, nearly all Republicans, were lynched.

Are you as stunned as I am? I really didn't know where to start, so I started at the Tuskegee Institute, the source. I found the exact figures that the Conservative Voice had used. They were in a paper from the Yale-New Haven Teacher's institute (The Negro Holocaust: Lynching and Race Riots in the United States,1880-1950 by Robert A. Gibson). From the paper:

According to the Tuskegee Institute figures, between the years 1882 and 1951, 4,730 people were lynched in the United States: 3,437 Negro and 1,293 white.

Sounds like the same quote to me, and wouldn't you know, Mr. Gibson used a footnote! (Note to Conservative Voice: try it sometime).

Guzman, Jessie P., ed., 1952 Negro Yearbook (New York, 1952), pp. 275-279.

Unfortunately, this particlular book is not available online, but in my desperate search for it, I found an earlier version of the Yearbook which showed that blacks in the late thirties were just becoming more politically active and voted more for Democrats than Republicans, but by no means did the Democrats have a lock on the black vote.

Going back to the Gibson paper, I found that the reasons for lynchings were myriad, but political affiliation isn't mentioned at all.

The accusations against persons lynched, according to the Tuskegee Institute records for the years 1882 to 1951, were: in 41 per cent for felonious assault, 19.2 per cent for rape, 6.1 per cent for attempted rape, 4.9 per cent for robbery and theft, 1.8 per cent for insult to white persons, and 22.7 per cent for miscellaneous offenses or no offense at a 11.5 In the last category are all sorts of trivial “offenses” such as “disputing with a white man,” attempting to register to vote, “unpopularity”, self-defense, testifying against a white man, “asking a white woman in marriage”, and “peeping in a window.”

I dug further, trying to prove or disprove this outrageous claim but I couldn't find anything that linked political affiliation with lynching. (1,2, ).

So what is most peculiar here is not that Salon.com left out this "fact", but that the Conservative Voice chooses to make this claim without citing any source whatsoever. I wrote to them asking for a source for their claim. I don't suppose I'm going to hear back.

Horrific

2007-04-17T17:19:00.000+02:00

By now, anyone reading this blog is well aware of the horrific acts of violence perpetrated allegedly by a South Korean student at Virginia Tech, so excuse the lack of links.

A while back, I posted a piece about my recent target shooting experience, and my belief in the 2nd Amendment. This incident has not changed my mind.

It is too early to tell, but I have yet to hear anything about an illegal gun being used in this most recent incident. It looks like the perpetrator had a couple of ordinary handguns, and a reserve of magazines. One of the points I made in the earlier post is that limits on the number of cartriges that a magazine holds (please don't say clips by the way, they are magazines) is unlikely to prevent a crime. I think this case will bear me out on this point. The time it takes to reload a simple semi-automatic hand gun is not going to save lives.

However, having said that, certain gun laws actually can cost people their lives, as they did in this case. I don't want to get into the media bias argument made in this article, but I do want to point out something that may not have occurred to most of my readers. "Gun-Free Zones" do not work, and are incorrectly named. Obviously, Virginia Tech was a campus that was supposed to be gun-free, but clearly it was not. Only the law abiding students were without guns here. It only would have taken one more gun to end this thing a lot sooner and save some lives. Now, from the article I mentioned earlier....

Peter Odighizuwa tragically shot six people, killing Dean Anthony Sutin, Associate Professor Thomas Blackwell, and student Angela Dales.

Most news reports pointed out that the situation ended when several students "confronted," "tackled," or "intervened." However, Tracy Bridges, Ted Besen, Todd Ross, and Mikael Gross did not merely "confront" Odighizuwa. Bridges and Gross separately ran to their cars to get their handguns once the shooting began. Bridges approached Odighizuwa with Besen's and Ross' aid. Gross was close behind. According to Bridges, "I aimed my gun at him, and Peter tossed his gun down." Bridges, Besen, and Gross had previously received police or military training.

I understand that those who favor gun-control are well meaning, by and large. Perhaps if we had never needed guns in the first place, and America was not armed as it is, some type of gun-laws could have improved the situation. However, as it is now, gun-laws will only serve to disarm the law-abiding and leave those of us who abide by the law at the mercy of the thugs who do not.

I'll be sure to post further on this as more details come out and in reaction to the slew of comments that I hope I will get.