Baker on Tap

With the Baker commission nearly ready to issue their report and the president having already been briefed on his options, there will be serious choices to be made. Baker's commission will issue a series of recomendations on what to do in Iraq. I imagine that there will be certain key words which may reveal the general plan. Let me consider three key words that we might hear: unity, seperation, and cooperation. Which will be the most likely to be heard, and what will it mean if we hear it?

Talk of unity will probably mean a coup on al-Maliki and the instalation of a strongman as this moonie times article suggests. I think this is unlikely because the "unity government" was the old path, Bush's path, and it isn't working. Installing a secular Shi'ite might be an improvement, but only marginally so. A secular strongman reeks of Saddam, and in the end will just mean a new boss and the same old problems. Some new path has to be entertained.

Talk of seperation, like the Biden plan outlines, is unlikely to produce positve results and it is unlikely that Baker and his commission will go this route. Biden's plan is to essentially break Iraq into the three obvious groups and high tail it the hell out. Well, you could do that, but it won't be pretty. And in the case of population centers, it would cause massive killing and displacement (yes, even more). Bush will not accept any such plan, nor would the conservative Baker. It is much too bold with too many negative possibilities arising. Baker is a balance of power type and Bush will put his foot down on this option, I believe.

What is likely is that we will hear talk of cooperation. This will probably mean limited autonomy but how that all breaks down I could only guess. Clearly, though, they have some things in mind. Baker said, "I happen to think, and I think it's fair to say our commission believes, that there are alternatives between the stated alternatives ... of stay the course and cut and run."

Well said Mr. Baker. That's just what I was thinking and let's hope you're right. Shall we discuss the failings of a two-party system now?

No, let's not. Because right now I'm waiting with baited breath for your report. It must be hard to finalize with the situation on the ground constantly changing. I'm sure you must have 50 revisions by now to match the 50 hostages taken today....

.....but let's just see what you have.



(Be sure to click on this first link. Take a moment to analyze that photo. A fly on the wall in that room after the press vacated was treated to some choice moments.)