UK Sailors Taken Captive, World Holds Breath

When the story of the 15 UK sailors taken captive by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard broke, I was in the United States. After I heard about it, I picked up the morning LA Times to get some more information. Amazingly, this story was given third billing behind the House Resolution on Iraq (somewhat understandable) and the tainted dog food story (unbelievable). Perhaps now it is the lead story, as it should be.

This thing has the potential to blow up into a devastating conflict. One of the key points here is that neither side has provided convincing evidence as to where the incident actually took place. The UK Ministry of Defense announced last Wedndesday they would release proof later that day that the sailors were in Iraqi waters when they were taken hostage. They said the same thing on Thursday and then delivered. However, there is still a long way to go to actually prove such claims. For their part, the Iranians have changed their story as to the exact location of the UK sailors when they were captured. Neither side is very convincing.

Another key point here is that the UK's rules of engagement are such that these sailors did not defend themselves when they perhaps could have (Bloomberg). And what occurs to me is how easily the UK soldiers have succumbed to demands that they admit they were in Iranina waters. Also, the IRNA reports that that the sailors may face trial.

One story you won't hear on CNN is the claim by the Iranians that the UK fired on its consulate in Basra. Nor will CNN report in the same breath that the US took 5 Iranians captive in Iraq just a couple of short months ago. Instead, we get the very predictable tough talk from President Bush which can not be backed up. And as a further side note, it has been reported by a Russian news agency that US plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this weekend. That, of course, is just a rumor at this point, but that would NOT be a "Good Friday" at all.

Meanwhile, students in Tehran have surrounded the UK embassy in protest.

This leads me to the point where we must ask, "who has the most to loose from a conflict?" People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, it has been said. So whereas the U.S. economy is facing a slowdown, the Iranian economy is already in shambles. Whereas the U.S. imports some 10 million barrels of oil per day, Iran exports about 2.2 million barrels per day.

Who stands to loose the most should a conflict push the price of oil above $100 per barrel and spark a global recession: the rich importers, or the poor exporter?

Finally, this is a perfect example of how a conflict in one place (Iraq) can spill over to conflicts elsewhere. America's gamble is getting riskier and riskier every day.